Stock futures decline as "cliff" talks stall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures declined on Monday, indicating the S&P 500 would extend losses after suffering its worst drop since mid-November on continued worry legislators will be unable to reach a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff."


The benchmark S&P index <.spx> declined 0.9 percent on Friday, its biggest percentage drop since November 14, as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain sufficient support on Thursday night.


Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.


"Despite the selloff on Friday, the market finished the week off on an up note and this morning we are seeing a downside follow through as investors are being rational to the possibility we do not have a cliff deal by year-end," said Andre Bakhos, director of market analytics at Lek Securities in New York.


"Today is a short session and with people away there is a possibility we could see exaggerated moves."


Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.


S&P 500 futures fell 4.7 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures lost 34 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 11.5 points.


Trading volumes are expected to be muted, with U.S. equity markets scheduled to close at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas holiday on Tuesday.


In addition, a number of European markets will operate on a shortened session, with other markets closed entirely.


U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.


Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. Shares lost 1.8 percent to $25.25 in light premarket trade.


European shares were broadly steady, consolidating sharp gains made in the past five weeks, with volumes set to be thin for the traditionally quiet half session ahead of the Christmas break. <.eu/>


Asian shares steadied in quiet pre-holiday trade from a slump late last week, with prices capped by nervousness about the risk of the United States failing to avert a fiscal crisis.


(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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Seahawks roll past 49ers in noisy Seattle 42-13


SEATTLE (AP) — Red Bryant remembers the early years of his career, when the Seattle Seahawks struggled to win only four and five games in his first two seasons.


Getting a 10th win on Sunday night and a trip to the postseason was special to the Seahawks' big defensive end.


"Who has been playing better than us the last few weeks?" Bryant questioned. "This is the National Football League and you don't get any gimmies. We work hard to win. ... It's hard to win in this league."


Russell Wilson threw a career-high four touchdown passes to move into second place for most TD passes by a rookie, Marshawn Lynch scored two first-quarter TDs, and the Seahawks routed the San Francisco 49ers 42-13.


Richard Sherman returned Bryant's blocked field goal 90 yards for another touchdown as the Seahawks (10-5) jumped to a 21-0 lead. That only added to an already hyped crowd on a typically cold and rainy December night, with noise echoing off the walls and overhanging roof of CenturyLink Field that might have been heard all the way across Puget Sound.


No one appeared to care about the weather, not with the performance they were seeing on the field. And not with a ticket to the postseason guaranteed thanks to Seattle's first 10-win season since 2007.


"We knew we were capable of doing this. We had no doubt. Even in Week 1, we knew that we had the talent to do what we're doing now," said wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who had two touchdown receptions. "It took time because we're a young team. We had to mature. We had to grow together, build that chemistry, build that trust out there on the field. That's the most important thing."


Seattle surged into the playoffs on the strength of its sixth win in seven games, putting up dizzying offensive numbers that no one thought would continue against the top scoring defense in the NFL but did.


Seattle has outscored its last three opponents 150-30. The 42 points were the most allowed since Jim Harbaugh took over the 49ers, and the most San Francisco yielded since giving up 45 to Atlanta in 2009. It was the perfect way for Seattle coach Pete Carroll to snap a three-game losing streak against his rival.


"We just try to play really good football and see what happens at the end," Carroll said. "We have been scoring and doing a nice job of it and it would be great If we can keep it rolling."


Seattle will likely be the No. 5 seed in the NFC. There remains a slight chance of winning the NFC West, if the Seahawks beat St. Louis in the season finale and Arizona can upset the 49ers in San Francisco.


The Seahawks, 7-0 at home, delayed San Francisco (10-4-1) from celebrating a division title. They turned Harbaugh's 49th birthday into a miserable evening.


"If you had told me this would be the outcome I wouldn't have believed it," Sherman said. "I would say you're making this up."


Wilson hit Lynch on a 9-yard TD in the first quarter, Anthony McCoy for a 6-yarder late in the first half, and Doug Baldwin on 4 and 6 yard TDs in the second half.


Wilson has 25 TD passes, one behind Peyton Manning's NFL rookie record of 26. He finished 15 of 21 for 171 yards. His only incompletion in the first half was a deflected pass that Patrick Willis intercepted.


Wilson's counterpart, San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick, had already proven himself capable of winning on the road with victories in New Orleans and last week in New England. But Seattle is a different beast, widely regarded by players as the loudest venue in the NFL. His inexperience playing in such an environment showed. He was flustered and disorganized at the line of scrimmage, letting the noise from Seattle's fans affect him.


Kaepernick's forgettable night was capped when Sherman stepped in front of his pass intended for Randy Moss at the back of the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter for his seventh interception of the season.


Kaepernick was 19 of 36 for 244 yards with an 18-yard TD pass to Delanie Walker with 1:40 left. Frank Gore had just 28 yards on six carries after rushing for a season-high 131 when the teams met in Week 7.


"Every time you are on the field you are learning something," Kaepernick said. "We just have to take what we can from this game and move on to next week."


San Francisco played without defensive tackle Justin Smith due to an elbow injury that ended a streak of 185 starts. The 49ers lost tight end Vernon Davis in the first quarter with a concussion sustained when he was knocked off his feet on a huge hit along the sideline from Seattle safety Kam Chancellor that looked legal but drew a penalty for hitting a defenseless receiver.


San Francisco wide receiver Mario Manningham went down with a left leg injury early in the third quarter when he was tackled low by Leroy Hill and fumbled.


The loss of Smith affected the entire defense. Aldon Smith was left stuck on 19 1-2 sacks after being locked up by Seattle offensive tackle Russell Okung.


"We can't make excuses," 49ers' safety Donte Whitner said. "We understand: We lost the football game; we lost an ugly football game."


NOTES: Lynch finished with 111 yards on 26 carries, his third straight game over 100 yards vs. the 49ers. ... Seattle was 11 of 13 on third-down conversions, a season-high. ... The 49ers were held to 82 yards rushing, just the third time this season he was held under 100 yards.


___


Online: http://pro32.ap.org/poll and http://twitter.com/AP_NFL


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Senators slam movie's torture scenes




In the new film "Zero Dark Thirty," Jessica Chastain plays a CIA analyst who is part of the team hunting Osama bin Laden.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Sens. Feinstein, McCain, Levin send letter calling new film "grossly inaccurate"

  • Letter adds to controversy over depiction of torture as a key to finding bin Laden, Bergen says

  • Senate committee has approved 6,000-page classified report on CIA interrogations program

  • Bergen says as much as possible of that report should be released to the public




Editor's note: Peter Bergen is a CNN national security analyst and author of "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden, from 9/11 to Abbottabad."


(CNN) -- On Wednesday, three senior U.S. senators sent Michael Lynton, the CEO of Sony Pictures, a letter about "Zero Dark Thirty," the much-discussed new movie about the hunt for Osama bin Laden, which described the film as "grossly inaccurate and misleading."


In the letter, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Dianne Feinstein, D-California, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, expressed their "deep disappointment" in the movie's depiction of CIA officers torturing prisoners, which "credits these detainees with providing critical lead information" about the courier who led the CIA to bin Laden's hiding place in northern Pakistan.


The senators point out that the filmmakers of "Zero Dark Thirty" open the movie with the words that it is "based on first-hand accounts of actual events." The film then goes on, the senators say, to give the clear implication "that the CIA's coercive interrogation techniques were effective in eliciting important information related to a courier for Usama Bin Laden."


Review: 'Zero Dark Thirty' is utterly gripping



Peter Bergen

Peter Bergen



The senators write that this is not supported by the facts: "We have reviewed CIA records and know that this is incorrect."


Last week, the Senate Intelligence Committee voted to sign off on the findings of its three-year study of the CIA's detention and interrogation program, during the course of which the committee's staff reviewed more than 6 million pages of records about the program.


Based on the findings of that review, Sens. Feinstein and Levin had released a statement eight months ago that said, "The CIA did not first learn about the existence of the Usama Bin Laden courier from CIA detainees subjected to coercive interrogation techniques. Nor did the CIA discover the courier's identity from detainees subjected to coercive techniques. ... Instead, the CIA learned of the existence of the courier, his true name and location through means unrelated to the CIA detention and interrogation program."


In their letter to Sony, the three senators write, "(W)ith the release of Zero Dark Thirty, the filmmakers and your production studio are perpetuating the myth that torture is effective. ... We believe that you have an obligation to state that the role of torture in the hunt for Usama Bin Laden is not based on the facts."


Requests from Sony Pictures for comment on the senators' letter yielded a response referring to a statement that the film's director Kathryn Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal had released last week:


"This was a 10-year intelligence operation brought to the screen in a two-and-a-half-hour film. We depicted a variety of controversial practices and intelligence methods that were used in the name of finding bin Laden. The film shows that no single method was necessarily responsible for solving the manhunt, nor can any single scene taken in isolation fairly capture the totality of efforts the film dramatizes. One thing is clear: the single greatest factor in finding the world's most dangerous man was the hard work and dedication of the intelligence professionals who spent years working on this global effort. We encourage people to see the film before characterizing it."


'Zero Dark Thirty' puts U.S. interrogation back in the spotlight










"Zero Dark Thirty" does indeed show many scenes of the various forms of sleuthing at the CIA that were necessary to track down al Qaeda's leader.


But the statement from the filmmakers does not address the fact that eight months ago, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee had publicly said that based on an exhaustive investigation, there was no evidence that coercive interrogations helped lead to bin Laden's courier -- which is clearly what the film suggests, no matter what retrospective gloss the filmmakers now wish to apply to the issue.


Nor does the statement indicate if Sony plans to put a disclaimer at the beginning of "Zero Dark Thirty" explaining that the role of coercive interrogations in tracking down bin Laden that is shown in the film is not supported by the facts.


As I outlined in a piece on CNN.com 10 days ago assessing the role that coercive interrogations might have played in the hunt for bin Laden, about half an hour of the start of "Zero Dark Thirty" consists of scenes of a bloodied al Qaeda detainee strung to the ceiling with ropes who is beaten; forced to wear a dog collar while crawling around attached to a leash; stripped naked in the presence of a female CIA officer; blasted with heavy metal music so he is deprived of sleep; forced to endure multiple crude waterboardings; and locked into a coffin-like wooden crate.


These are the scenes that will linger with filmgoers, far more than the scene in the movie where two CIA analysts discuss what will prove to be a key lead to bin Laden that surfaces in an old file. Brutal interrogations, of course, make for a better movie than a discussion at the office.


It is only after systematic abuse by his CIA interrogators in "Zero Dark Thirty" that the al Qaeda detainee is tricked into believing that he has already given up key information, and he starts cooperating and tells them about a man known as Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, who ultimately proves to be bin Laden's courier.


Acting CIA director Michael Morell, in a letter to CIA employees on Friday, took strong exception to this portrayal of how bin Laden was found:


"The film creates the strong impression that the enhanced interrogation techniques that were part of our former detention and interrogation program were the key to finding Bin Ladin. That impression is false. As we have said before, the truth is that multiple streams of intelligence led CIA analysts to conclude that Bin Ladin was hiding in Abbottabad. Some came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques, but there were many other sources as well. "


"Zero Dark Thirty" opened Wednesday in New York and Los Angeles and will open nationwide in the second week in January.


Let's hope that the attention that "Zero Dark Thirty" has directed to the issue of what kind of intelligence was derived from the CIA's coercive interrogations will help to put pressure on the White House and the CIA to release to the public as much as possible of the presently classified 6,000-page report by the Senate Intelligence Committee that examines this issue.


_____________


Full disclosure: Along with other national security experts, as an unpaid adviser I screened an early cut of "Zero Dark Thirty." We advised that al Qaeda detainees held at secret CIA prison sites overseas were certainly abused, but they were not beaten to a pulp, as was presented in this early cut. Screenwriter Mark Boal told CNN as a result of this critique, some of the bloodier scenes were "toned down" in the final cut. I also saw this final cut of the film. Finally, HBO is making a theatrical release documentary which will be out in 2013 based on my book about the hunt for bin Laden entitled "Manhunt."


Follow @CNNOpinion on Twitter.


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“Twilight Zone” reboot in the works from Bryan Singer, CBS Television Studios






LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Bryan Singer is about to enter “The Twilight Zone.”


The “X-Men” director is working on a reboot of Rod Serling‘s television series with CBS Television Studios, a spokeswoman for CBS Television Studios told TheWrap. Singer will develop and executive-produce the project, and could direct.






The project is currently in the very early stages.


The original “Twilight Zone” ran on CBS from 1959 to 1964, and the network revived the series in the 1980s. Most recently, the UPN ran a revival of the series, with Forest Whitaker hosting. That version, which launched in 2002, lasted one season.


Singer was also involved in the revival of another classic television series earlier this year, with NBC’s “The Munsters” revamp, dubbed “Mockingbird Lane.” Initially conceived as a series, “Mockingbird Lane” aired as a Halloween special for the network.


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Signs suggest better economy if ‘cliff’ is averted






WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh signs of a strengthening U.S. economy on Friday suggested that if Congress and the White House can avert the “fiscal cliff,” the economic recovery might finally accelerate in 2013.


Consumers spent and earned more in November. And for a second straight month, U.S. companies increased their orders for a category of manufactured goods that reflects investment plans.






In light of the latest figures, some analysts said the economy could end up growing faster in the current October-December quarter — and next year — than they previously thought.


“I see momentum building,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. “If Washington makes the moves it needs to make, then the economy should pick up speed next year.”


That’s a big “if.” House Republicans called off a vote on tax rates and left budget talks in disarray 10 days before the package of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff would take effect.


Still, helping lift the optimism of some analysts was a government report that consumer spending, which fuels about 70 percent of the economy, rose 0.4 percent in November compared with October. Spending had dipped 0.1 percent in October. But that decline was linked in part to disruptions from Superstorm Sandy.


Incomes rose 0.6 percent in November, the biggest gain in 11 months. It reflected a rebound in wages and salaries, which had been depressed in October. Damage from Sandy in the Northeast prevented some people from working at the end of October and reduced wages at an annual rate of $ 18 billion.


A separate report Friday showed that a category of durable-goods orders that tracks business investment surged 2.7 percent. That gain followed an upwardly revised 3.2 percent jump in October, the biggest in 10 months.


The back-to-back increases followed a period of weakness in so-called core capital goods that had raised concerns about business investment, a driving force in the economy.


The economy grew in the July-September quarter at a solid 3.1 percent annual rate. But some analysts said they thought growth would slow significantly in the October-December period. They predicted that consumers and businesses would cut back on spending because of worries about the fiscal cliff.


But after Friday’s reports, Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital, said Barclays is raising its estimate of growth in the current quarter to a 2.4 percent annual rate, from a previous estimate of 2.2 percent.


Naroff said he thinks growth in the fourth quarter can reach a 2.6 percent annual rate. He said he expects growth to hit a rate of around 3.2 percent in the January-March quarter and 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter.


He said those estimates are based on his confidence that Washington policymakers will avert the sharp tax increases and spending cuts, which could trigger a recession if they remain in place for much of 2013.


Naroff said U.S. economic growth would benefit next year from a rebounding housing market, gradual hiring gains that will boost incomes and the likelihood that Europe’s financial crisis will ease and dampen U.S. exports less than in 2012.


But he said his optimistic forecasts would be derailed if the economy goes off the fiscal cliff in January, which could send shockwaves through financial markets.


“If the fiscal cliff is breached, the biggest concern is confidence,” Naroff said. “I remain hopeful that saner heads will prevail in Washington.”


Economists said the budget impasse and the uncertainty it’s created about tax rates are reducing consumer confidence. The University of Michigan said Friday that its index of consumer sentiment for December fell to 72.9, its lowest point since July. It was a sharp drop from the November reading of 82.7, a five-year high.


Chris G. Christopher Jr., senior economist at IHS Global Insight, said he still expected holiday retail sales to increase a respectable 3.9 percent this year over last year despite slumping consumer confidence. And he said spending momentum should continue into 2013 — as long as the fiscal cliff is resolved in a way that avoids damaging the economy.


“We are assuming that the fiscal cliff does get resolved, and if it does, we should see strong consumer spending and momentum for the economy in 2013,” Christopher said. “But if we go down the fiscal cliff, then the first quarter will not be pretty.”


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What’s on Your Year-End Financial To-Do List?






Ah, the last week of the year: Time to celebrate with family and friends, catch a high-quality movie or two, and sneak the periodic treat from the cookie and candy pileup in the kitchen. But year-end is also a good time to tackle financial tasks, including making last-minute retirement-plan contributions, donating to charity, and rebalancing a portfolio.


In the Personal Finance forum of Morningstar.com’s Discuss boards, I recently asked Morningstar.com users which tasks were on their financial to-do lists in 2012′s waning days. PKIAN quipped, “Year-end usually means more spending than saving!” And he’s right. But other readers shared their year-end financial goals, including increasing tax deductions, whipping their portfolios into shape, and (finally) tackling their estate plans. To read the complete thread or share your own year-end strategy, click here.






‘It Seemed a Good Time’
Because the end of the tax year is the deadline for many tax-related items, many readers’ to-do lists centered on reducing the tax collector’s cut of their 2012 returns.


Harvesting long-term capital gains–a popular strategy given the planned expiration of the Bush tax cuts at year-end–emerged as a timely strategy for SusanR. She wrote, “My husband does contract work since retiring several years ago. Since he didn’t work first 10 months in 2012, we are in the 15% tax bracket. We will probably be in the 25%-28% bracket next year. It seemed a good time to harvest very long-term capital gains. I estimated how much we could sell and still pay 0% capital gains tax on [our] 2012 return. I sold yesterday and bought back as we still want to own the stock.” (This video provides additional color on the strategy.)


LetItBe, like many savvy investors, has viewed converting traditional IRA assets to Roth as a way to blunt the impact of what could be higher taxes in the future. “I’m converting the last of my traditional IRAs to Roth–I expect to pass them on to kids. I’m prepaying some property taxes to help offset the income from IRA conversion.” (Note that pushing forward deductions and other strategies can help offset the taxes due upon conversion of a traditional IRA to a Roth.)


Cybchris, meanwhile, conducted a trial run of his tax return for 2012, which in turn led him to bump up his contributions to his SEP-IRA. (This article provides an overview of tax-advantaged investment wrappers for the self-employed, including SEP-IRAs and Solo 401(k)s.) “I did a near-final business profit and loss so I could mock up our 2012 tax return in a Numbers spreadsheet, which allowed me to more accurately estimate our fourth-quarter self-employment tax. Based on the updated P&L, I found we could save a lot more in our SEP-IRA so I transferred more to our brokerage.”


Recognizing that Dec. 31 is the deadline for making charitable contributions and deducting them on his household’s 2012 tax return, BMW Lover plans to use the year’s waning days to spread good cheer–and he’ll earn a tax break to boot. “The one thing left to do is to make sure our favorite nonprofits are taken care of. We will be transferring appreciated stocks to our primary recipient and the others will be receiving cash. Our investments are where I feel they should be, and I’m sleeping well going into the holidays knowing that we have a well-positioned portfolio.”


‘There’s Always Room for Improvement’
For other posters, reviewing investments is a must-do. LetItBe wrote, “I definitely will review investments (mostly mutual funds)–drop losers and decide on winners for the next year. I had a decent year, but there’s always room for improvement.” (Investors who hold the losing securities in a taxable account can use those losses to offset capital gains and, if their gains are exhausted, ordinary income.)


Enoui enumerated several investment-related to-dos, including the following: “Update my Morningstar portfolio with end-of-year holdings.” and, sagely, “Try to relax and take a long-term view.”


Other readers noted that they’re taking advantage of planned down time to simplify their investment mixes. Carrie shared, “I’ve been looking at consolidating some accounts (currently have two Roth IRAs) and paring down my number of holdings in my retirement accounts. That isn’t end-of-the-year critical, but I should have time to take action over the Christmas holiday.”


Fine-tuning his retirement strategy in anticipation of volatile markets is top-of-mind TraderBob, who wrote, “Being a trader, I am averse to drawdowns. Since we will both be fully retired next year, however, I have allocated part of my portfolio to long-term positions for growth and income. The open question for me at this year’s end is how best to deal with drawdowns in the long-term portfolio given the inevitable bear markets in the future–other than by just reducing withdrawals.”


‘We Have Procrastinated Long Enough’
Other readers said they are are looking forward to checking estate planning–often the most procrastinated to-do in the whole financial-planning world–off their lists. Retire2020 wrote, “For my wife and me, [our will is] the most important thing which we have procrastinated long enough. Thank God it’s getting traction and will be signed before the end of the year.”


Carrie is also getting close on the estate-planning front, writing, “I have an appointment with my estate-planning attorney tomorrow to review the documents she prepared (trust, will, etc., etc.).”


The turning of the calendar page provides a good opportunity to assess how well you did on the budgeting front in the previous year. Thus, an item on Enoui’s year-end to-do list is to “run [Internet banking] reports to review spending and income.”


As part of the budget-review process, Richendric plans to review his personal inflation rate to assess year-over-year changes in outlays for basic living expenses. “One additional thing I now do near calendar year-end since I’ve been retired is to total my itemized fixed expenses (real estate taxes, insurances, utilities, and so on) and calculate my core personal inflation rate for the year.”


Finally, Chief K wisely noted that it’s best to avoid the mad scramble to complete financial-planning tasks at year-end, sharing this strategy: “I prepare a to-do list in early March, shortly after filing my taxes, for the coming 12 months. I review/adjust it two or three times during the year. I prefer to schedule my to-dos at least a month out to allow myself plenty of time to reflect on them before executing each item on the list.”


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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Falcons top Lions 31-18 for home-field advantage


DETROIT (AP) — Matt Ryan got what he wanted.


Calvin Johnson was forced to settle for what he could get.


Ryan matched a career high with four touchdown passes, two to Roddy White, to help the Atlanta Falcons beat the Detroit Lions 31-18 Saturday night and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.


"It's great," Ryan said. "Our confidence is high and our experience — good and bad — has helped us. The key is to keep the focus where it's been."


In yet another loss, Johnson had a record-breaking night.


Johnson broke Jerry Rice's NFL single-season yards receiving mark of 1,848. After making the record-breaking catch in the fourth quarter, Johnson jogged over to the sideline and handed the football to his father.


"That was a very special moment," he said.


Johnson also became the only player with 100 yards receiving in eight straight games and the first with 10 receptions in four games in a row in league history. He had 11 receptions for 225 yards, giving him 1,892 this season.


"I've been an NFL fan my whole life, dating back to watching Johnny Unitas and Raymond Berry as a kid, and I've coached in this league for 19 years," Detroit coach Jim Schwartz said. "I've seen a lot of Hall of Famers, but I've never seen a better player than Calvin Johnson.


"He just broke a record set by Jerry Rice, who is arguably the best player in this history of this league."


The Falcons (13-2) pulled away with Ryan's fourth TD pass to wide-open tight end Michael Palmer in the fourth quarter and Matt Bryant's 20-yard field goal with 3:05 left that gave them a 15-point lead.


Ryan was 25 of 32 for 279 yards without a turnover.


The Falcons hope playing at home, potentially throughout the conference playoffs, helps them more than it did after the 2010 and 1980 seasons. The Falcons failed to win a game in either postseason, getting routed by Green Bay two years ago and blowing a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead to Dallas three decades ago.


Atlanta advanced to its only Super Bowl with a win at Minnesota after winning a franchise-record 14 games during the 1998 season.


The Falcons won't have much incentive to match that mark next week at home against Tampa Bay, when they'll have nothing to gain and something to lose if a key player or more gets hurt.


Detroit (4-11) has been relegated to playing for pride this month and that hasn't been going very well.


The Lions, whose seven-game losing streak is the longest skid in the league, haven't struggled this much since the laughingstock of a franchise became the league's first to go 0-16 in 2008.


The Falcons led 21-3 at halftime before letting the Lions pull within five points early in the fourth quarter.


Ryan dashed Detroit's comeback hopes.


Facing intense pressure, he converted a third down in Atlanta territory with a pass to White, picked on rookie cornerback Jonte Green by throwing to Jones to pick up more first downs and found Tony Gonzalez open to convert another third down to set up his fourth TD pass.


"We didn't play well in the third quarter," Atlanta coach Mike Smith said. "Matt made some big throws on that drive."


Stafford was clearly trying to get the ball to Johnson on the next drive and cornerback Asante Samuel figured that out, stepping in front of the receiver for an interception to set up Bryant's field goal.


Atlanta running back Michael Turner was tackled in the end zone, after Detroit turned the ball over on downs, to give the Lions two meaningless points.


Ryan went deep to White for the first score, connecting with him on a 44-yard TD strike with 5:50 left in the first quarter. Ryan threw a short pass to him early in the second quarter and the standout receiver did the rest on a 39-yard sprint down the sideline.


Ryan put his third TD pass where only Julio Jones could catch it a corner of the end zone, and he did on a 16-yard reception that put Atlanta up 21-3.


Detroit didn't give up, a game after being accused of doing just that in a 38-10 loss at Arizona.


Jason Hanson kicked a second field goal late in the first half to make it 21-6.


After Atlanta opened the second half with a three-and-out drive, Mikel Leshoure scored on a 1-yard run midway through the third quarter to pull the Lions with eight points.


Hanson's third field goal made it 21-16.


Stafford finished 37 of 56 for 443 yards with an interception and the Lions say he set an NFL record for the most yards passing in a game without throwing a TD pass.


Detroit dug a big hole because the Falcons scored two TDs off turnovers in the first half.


Defensive end Kroy Biermann forced running Leshoure to fumble, giving the Falcons the ball at their 31 and they took advantage. Ryan's perfectly lofted pass to White's fingertips converted a third-and-1 in a big way, putting the Falcons ahead.


The Lions responded with another drive into Atlanta territory, but stalled and had to settle for Hanson's 34-yard field goal in the final minute of the opening quarter to pull within four points.


Atlanta earned a double-digit lead on the ensuing drive.


Ryan threw a screen pass to his left to White, who got a great block from tight end Gonzalez, and the receiver raced untouched for a score that put the Falcons ahead 14-3.


White finished with eight receptions for 153 yards and two TDs. Jones had seven receptions for 71 yards and a score.


Ryan completed his first 12 attempts and, after his first incomplete pass, he converted a third-and-10 with an 11-yard toss to Jacquizz Rodgers. Two plays later, Ryan matched a season high with a third TD pass on the connection with Jones. Prior to the game, Ryan hadn't started a game with more than 10 consecutive completions, according to STATS LLC. He started 10 for 10 last month against Tampa Bay.


Johnson had three receptions for 70 yards in the first quarter, breaking Herman Moore's single-season franchise record for yards receiving.


By halftime, Johnson had 117 yards receiving. He had 100 yards receiving for an eighth straight game, breaking a record set by Charley Hennigan in 1961 and matched by Michael Irvin in 1995. It was Johnson's 11th game with 100 yards receiving this season, tying Irvin's NFL mark.


"Calvin is one of the best players in the game and I think everybody is a big fan of his," Ryan said. "He's one of the most genuinely nice people you could meet."


Stafford connected with Johnson on a short crossing route and the receiver did the rest, outrunning Falcons on a 49-yard gain. Fittingly, the Lions turned the ball over on the next snap in the latest lowlight in a season full of them.


The Lions, Falcons and fans at Ford Field in Detroit honored the victims of the shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School before the game. Players had memorial decals on their helmets that read "S.H.E.S." in white on a black background, and Detroit's coaches wore pins with a similar design. There was also a moment of silence before the national anthem while the names and ages of each victim were shown on the videoboards. Twenty children and six adults were killed in the Dec. 14 shooting in Newtown, Conn. Adam Lanza killed his mother, shot students and staff, then killed himself.


NOTES: Stafford, in his fourth season, has 1,090 career completions to surpass Bobby Layne's franchise record of 1,074. Stafford is seven attempts away from surpassing the NFL's single-season mark of 691 set by Drew Bledsoe with New England in 1994. ... Backup Falcons CB Christopher Owens had a hamstring injury.


___


Online: http://pro32.ap.org/poll and http://twitter.com/AP_NFL


___


Follow Larry Lage on Twitter: http://twitter.com/larrylage


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Madness in the air in Washington




National Rifle Association Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre calls on Congress to pass a law putting armed police officers in every school in America.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • David Gergen: After election, there were hopes partisan tension would fade

  • He says this week we've seen a complete breakdown on the fiscal cliff

  • The NRA doubled down on its anti-gun-control rhetoric despite Newtown, he says

  • Gergen: We're seeing the character assassination of a hero, Chuck Hagel




Editor's note: David Gergen is a senior political analyst for CNN and has been an adviser to four presidents. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service and director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Follow him on Twitter.


(CNN) -- What in the world is gripping Washington? Everywhere one turns -- from finances to guns to nominations -- there is madness in the air.


With time rapidly running out, efforts have collapsed to reach a major agreement on federal spending and taxes before year's end, and both Congress and President are leaving town for the holidays. At best, they will return next week and construct a small bridge over the "fiscal cliff"; at worst, they won't. But who knows?



David Gergen

David Gergen



And that's a big part of the problem -- no one can be confident that our national leaders are still capable of governing responsibly. And in the process, they are putting both our economy and our international reputation at risk.


Fresh poison


President Barack Obama had rightly hoped that the elections would clear the air; they haven't. If anything, the recent squabbling over the federal budget has injected fresh poison into relationships and dimmed prospects for other bipartisan agreements in the next few years, starting with hopes for a "grand bargain"in 2013.




John Boehner and Eric Cantor, the House GOP leaders




The President insists he remains an optimist, but if he and Republicans can't agree on how to bring the nation's finances under control -- something fundamental to the welfare of the country -- why should we have faith they will succeed on other important issues like energy, education, immigration and gun safety?


As the blame game heats up, Republicans are sure to pay the biggest price with the public. It was bad enough that they lost the message fight, letting themselves be painted as protectors of the wealthy. But it was inexcusable when they revolted against House Speaker John Boehner in his search for a way forward: that only reinforced a narrative that the Grand Old Party has fallen hostage to its right wing -- a narrative that already exacted a huge price in the fall elections.


Most voters -- I am among them -- believe the country needs a center-right party but will not support an extremist party.


President Obama is certainly not blameless in these financial talks. Early on, he overplayed his hand, alienating rank-and-file Republicans. Like Boehner, he has been more accommodating recently, offering concessions on taxes and entitlement spending that narrowed the negotiating gap between the parties, even as his leftward allies fretted.












Still, Boehner has a point in arguing that what Obama now has on the table comes nowhere close to what the he was advocating in the election season: a ratio of 2.5 dollars in spending cuts to 1.0 dollars in tax increases.


The buck stops on the President's desk, so that ordinarily one would expect him to take the lead in these final days before January 1. For reasons that are still unclear, he instead chose in his press statement late Friday to toss responsibility for negotiations next week into the laps of Congressional leaders.


Perhaps he has reached a quiet understanding with Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that the two of them can work out a stripped-down agreement. Let's hope so. But as we enter the holidays, it appears to be a mess. And time is quickly running out.


The NRA in denial


As if Friday weren't gloomy enough, the National Rifle Association weighed in with its long-awaited response to the horrors of Newtown, Connecticut. There had been hints that the NRA would offer a more conciliatory stance. Just the opposite: they doubled down.


Incredibly, Wayne LaPierre, executive vice president of the NRA, called for putting armed police officers in every school. Isn't that what parents of every six-year old have been longing for: to have their child studying and playing under the watchful eye of an armed guard? Has LaPierre visited an elementary school classroom in recent years? If so, he would know his idea would be repulsive in most schools.


Just as strikingly, the NRA response refused to acknowledge and address the beliefs of a majority of Americans in recent polls that the U.S. needs tougher laws in favor of gun safety. Americans aren't saying no one should have guns or that the 2nd Amendment should be gutted but they are demanding a national conversation to see what can be sensibly done. It is hard to have a conversation when one side won't talk.


Character assassination


Meanwhile, in a less noticed but important saga in Washington, we are once again watching the character assassination of a public servant of honor and distinction.


Chuck Hagel served America with valor as a sergeant in the Vietnam war, earning two Purple Hearts. He was a popular Republican senator from Nebraska who paid close attention to international affairs and is now co-chair of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, serving with another former Senator, David Boren.


Ever since Hagel's name arose as a top candidate to become the next Secretary of Defense, he has been pilloried for statements and stands he has taken in the past. Is it legitimate to question his positions on Israel, Iran, and on gays? Absolutely. But what is grossly unfair is to misstate them, saying that he is against sanctions on Iran when in fact he has argued in favor of international sanctions, not unilateral sanctions (which don't work). As someone who strongly favors Israel, I am also deeply troubled by the way he has been misrepresented as virtually anti-Semitic.


Nor is this a fair fight. Hagel is in no-man's land because his name is prominently mentioned but he hasn't been formally nominated, so the White House isn't rushing to the barricades to support him.



The signals from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue were that the Secretary of Defense nominee would be announced in a package with the Secretary of State. The President has now gone ahead with John Kerry but the absence of a Defense nominee has now left Hagel dangling in the breeze, a piñata.


The White House should now move early next week -- by announcement or by leak -- to settle this by making a decision. Whether or not the President nominates Hagel, he should put a stop to the defamation by recognizing Hagel as a patriot with an independent mind and a long record of honor. If selected as Secretary, Hagel would be a very fine member of the national security team.


One had hoped that the shootings at Sandy Hook would draw us together. Sadly, they haven't. Now, perhaps the blessings of the holidays and a brief moment to take a breath will lift our sights. Surely, this madness should not continue into the New Year.


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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of David Gergen.






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Crafters send mittens with a message to Newtown






Chester Raccoon stood at the edge of the forest and cried. ‘I don’t want to go to school,’ he told his mother. ‘I want to stay home with you. I want to play with my friends. And play with my toys. And read my books. And swing on my swing. Please may I stay home with you?’” — “The Kissing Hand,” by Audrey Penn.


___






NEW YORK (AP) — Imagining the horror for Sandy Hook Elementary students when they walk into their new school for the first time, a Connecticut mom is relying on Chester of the children’s classic “The Kissing Hand” and the busy fingers of her fellow knitters to ease their way.


Kim Piscatelli of East Hampton, Conn., hit on the idea of sending a copy of the book for each of the kids and a pair of handmade mittens adorned with a heart in one palm, signifying the reassuring kiss left there by the mother of scared, sad Chester in the story written by Audrey Penn.


Piscatelli, a 40-minute drive from Newtown, sent out a call to her friends, who called on their friends. The project she thought up just Sunday spread quickly on Facebook and websites for knitters and crafters, with the first shipment of books and mittens scheduled to land in Newtown the first week of January.


“I thought, how are those families ever going to get back in a routine of sending their children to school? If there ever was a town that needed to know about that book, it was Newtown,” said an overwhelmed Piscatelli, who now has a warehouse stacked with 1,600 copies of the book and plenty of volunteers to sort, pack and ship.


Others are hurriedly making mittens, from California and Canada to Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in time for the start of classes in a once-shuttered school in nearby Monroe. A knitters’ group in Georgia pulled an all-night “knitathon” for the cause, Piscatelli said.


The book’s publisher, Tanglewood Press, has donated the books, along with enough copies of a sequel dealing with Chester’s loss of a playmate for teachers to read aloud.


In “The Kissing Hand,” the tearful boy is heading off to school for the first time, but he begs his mother to stay home. She spreads his tiny fingers and kisses him square in the palm and tells him “whenever you feel lonely and need a little loving from home, just press your hand to your cheek and think, ‘Mommy loves you.’”


The story was first published in 1993 by the Child Welfare League of America, a Washington, D.C.-based coalition of agencies and organizations helping children at risk. Penn had tried and failed for years to get her story of Chester published, until a league official heard Penn read it and decided to take it on.


“At first, no bookstore, no wholesaler would carry it,” said Peggy Tierney, who worked at the league and took Penn with her after starting Tanglewood. “Then kindergarten teachers discovered it, word spread, people started going into stores trying to find copies, then everyone started carrying it, and by 1999 it was on the New York Times best-seller list.”


One of Piscatelli’s first stops in getting her mitten project off the ground was to contact Penn, who lives in Durham, N.C. She recalled reading the story to her own three kids when they were younger.


Penn, who lost a brother to drowning when she was 13, signed off on the combined book-mitten project as soon as Piscatelli contacted her.


“When I saw the news, my heart was just torn in half. I couldn’t breathe. I couldn’t breathe. Enough is enough is enough,” the writer said.


Penn’s 2009 sequel, called “Chester the Raccoon and the Acorn Full of Memories,” has Chester the boy raccoon working through the death of a friend, Skiddil Squirrel, who has an accident. Chester’s teacher tells his class Skiddil won’t return to school, so Chester and his mother venture to a butterfly pond where the squirrel loved to play to discover some acorns Skiddil left there have sprouted into young trees.


“I’ve been involved with so many parents who have lost children,” Penn said. “They just seem to reach out to me and say we love your book and your book has been a comfort.”


The writer hopes the children of Sandy Hook will “get a sense of some kind of security” from the mitten project. “They’ll have a way of keeping in tangible touch with someone at home, someone they feel very secure with.”


Meantime, Piscatelli and dozens of knitters who have contacted her through the project’s Facebook page are pressing on to get the books and mittens in the students’ hands. About 600 kids attended Sandy Hook when Lanza opened fire, but Piscatelli plans to share mittens and books with all the schoolchildren of Newtown.


“The original request was for hand-knit mittens with a heart knit in, embroidered on or sewn on,” she said. “The reality is we have people sewing polar fleece mittens, mittens made from recycled sweaters, store-bought mittens. Every pair of handmade or store-bought mittens will have a heart sewn on if it isn’t there when we receive them.”


Piscatelli has heard from other crafters who plan related Kissing Hand projects, including a group of schoolchildren in Mississippi making pillows.


“Everybody wants to help,” she said. “Everybody’s looking for some way to reach out.”


When a company called Oceanhouse Media learned of Piscatelli’s idea they released a digital version of “The Kissing Hand” early and free of cost in the iTunes app store. Piscatelli has also heard from the loved ones of grown-up volunteers on the ground in Newtown.


“I got a call from a woman who said my father is with the Red Cross,” Piscatelli said. “He’s a psychologist and is there now and I really think he needs a pair of Kissing Hand mittens.”


___


Follow Leanne Italie on Twitter at https://twitter.com/litalie


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Hurting Spaniards pin hopes on Christmas lottery






MADRID (AP) — After another brutal year of economic hardship, Spaniards across the country are hoping for relief when the country’s famed Christmas lottery — the world’s richest — pays out €2.5 billion ($ 3.3 billion) in tax-free awards on Saturday.


Almost everyone in the country of 46 million people will be glued to live TV to watch school children sing out the winning numbers for the lottery that pays out maximum prizes of €400,000 ($ 529,840) and many more for smaller amounts. The top prize is dubbed “El Gordo” (“The Fat One”) and is likely to be won by hundreds if not thousands of players.






Unlike other big lotteries that generate just a few big winners, Spain‘s lottery — now in its 200th year — has always aimed for a share-the-wealth-system rather than a single jackpot, and thousands of numbers yield at least some kind of return.


The Christmas lottery is so popular that there are frequently three €20 ($ 26) tickets sold for every Spaniard, and the lottery itself is the unofficial kickoff of the holiday season.


“A lot of people win,” said Pablo Foncillas, a marketing professor at the IESE Business School in Madrid. “It’s really common even if you don’t win to get a free ticket. So many people win that people just keep on playing. Everyone knows someone who’s won, even if it’s only a little bit.”


Hundreds of players lined up daily to buy tickets this week outside the Dona Manuelita lottery store in Madrid, which has often sold winning tickets. Before Spain’s property-led economic boom collapsed in 2008, they had hoped to win so they could buy a small apartment or a car. Now people said they need the money just to hang on to what they have and avoid being evicted or having cars repossessed.


Betting that tickets from Dona Manuelita stood a better chance of winning, unemployed construction company office manager Miguel Angel Ruiz drove 165 kilometers (102 miles) to buy for a pool of players including his wife and relatives.


“We’re buying more hoping we’ll hit it so we can emerge from poverty,” said Ruiz, 39. “Before the crisis, lottery winnings were to buy an apartment or a car, and now it’s to pay debts.”


Diego Sanbrano, let go from his waiter’s job two months ago, said the Spanish lottery isn’t about getting rich and never working again.


“It’s to pay off debts and straighten out your life,” he said. “You pay the mortgage and make the car payment, and then maybe you have a little left over to go somewhere on vacation.”


Since so many people chip in to buy tickets in groups, the top prizes frequently end up being handed out in the same small town or in one city neighborhood. Last year’s top winning number hit for 1,800 tickets in the northern town of Granen, population 2,000. Townspeople shared about €700 million ($ 925 million), and the rest of the €1.8 billion ($ 2.4 billion) was doled out in smaller prizes around Spain.


The Dec. 22 lottery began in 1812 and last year sold an estimated €2.7 billion ($ 3.6 billion) in tickets with per-capita spending of about €70 ($ 92) just for the Christmas lottery.


Spain holds another big lottery Jan. 6 to mark the Feast of the Epiphany. It is known as “El Nino” (The Child), in reference to the baby Jesus.


But the crisis will hit El Nino and all lotteries going forward. Until now, lottery winnings have been free from taxation. Waves of austerity measures imposed by the government this year to prevent Spain from asking for public finances bailout like those for Greece, Ireland and Portugal have translated into higher taxes. Lottery winnings above €2,000 ($ 2,640) will face a 20 percent tax in 2013.


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Obama says believes can get deal on fiscal cliff






WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama on Friday urged lawmakers to reach agreement on averting tax hikes on the middle class, saying he was ready and willing to do what it takes to get a deal by January 1.


Obama said he had spoken with Republican House Speaker John Boehner and met with Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid about the fiscal cliff. The president said he was an optimist and believed a deal could be hammered out.






Obama had been expected to leave as early as Friday to spend the Christmas holidays in Hawaii, but he gave no indications of his travel plans except to tell reporters “see you next week.”


(Reporting By Tabassum Zakaria and Matt Spetalnick)


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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Douglas wins AP female athlete of the year honors


When Gabby Douglas allowed herself to dream of being the Olympic champion, she imagined having a nice little dinner with family and friends to celebrate. Maybe she'd make an appearance here and there.


"I didn't think it was going to be crazy," Douglas said, laughing. "I love it. But I realized my perspective was going to have to change."


Just a bit.


The teenager has become a worldwide star since winning the Olympic all-around title in London, the first African-American gymnast to claim gymnastics' biggest prize. And now she has earned another honor. Douglas was selected The Associated Press' female athlete of the year, edging out swimmer Missy Franklin in a vote by U.S. editors and news directors that was announced Friday.


"I didn't realize how much of an impact I made," said Douglas, who turns 17 on Dec. 31. "My mom and everyone said, 'You really won't know the full impact until you're 30 or 40 years old.' But it's starting to sink in."


In a year filled with standout performances by female athletes, those of the pint-sized gymnast shined brightest. Douglas received 48 of 157 votes, seven more than Franklin, who won four gold medals and a bronze in London. Serena Williams, who won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open two years after her career was nearly derailed by a series of health problems, was third (24).


Britney Griner, who led Baylor to a 40-0 record and the NCAA title, and skier Lindsey Vonn each got 18 votes. Sprinter Allyson Felix, who won three gold medals in London, and Carli Lloyd, who scored both U.S. goals in the Americans' 2-1 victory over Japan in the gold-medal game, also received votes.


"One of the few years the women's (Athlete of the Year) choices are more compelling than the men's," said Julie Jag, sports editor of the Santa Cruz Sentinel.


Douglas is the fourth gymnast to win one of the AP's annual awards, which began in 1931, and first since Mary Lou Retton in 1984. She also finished 15th in voting for the AP sports story of the year.


Douglas wasn't even in the conversation for the Olympic title at the beginning of the year. That all changed in March when she upstaged reigning world champion and teammate Jordyn Wieber at the American Cup in New York, showing off a new vault, an ungraded uneven bars routine and a dazzling personality that would be a hit on Broadway and Madison Avenue.


She finished a close second to Wieber at the U.S. championships, then beat her two weeks later at the Olympic trials. With each competition, her confidence grew. So did that smile.


By the time the Americans got to London, Douglas had emerged as the most consistent gymnast on what was arguably the best team the U.S. has ever had.


She posted the team's highest score on all but one event in qualifying. She was the only gymnast to compete in all four events during team finals, when the Americans beat the Russians in a rout for their second Olympic title, and first since 1996. Two nights later, Douglas claimed the grandest prize of all, joining Retton, Carly Patterson and Nastia Liukin as what Bela Karolyi likes to call the "Queen of Gymnastics."


But while plenty of other athletes won gold medals in London, none captivated the public quite like Gabby.


Fans ask for hugs in addition to photographs and autographs, and people have left restaurants and cars upon spotting her. She made Barbara Walters' list of "10 Most Fascinating People," and Forbes recently named her one of its "30 Under 30." She has deals with Nike, Kellogg Co. and AT&T, and agent Sheryl Shade said Douglas has drawn interest from companies that don't traditionally partner with Olympians or athletes.


"She touched so many people of all generations, all diversities," Shade said. "It's her smile, it's her youth, it's her excitement for life. ... She transcends sport."


Douglas' story is both heartwarming and inspiring, its message applicable those young or old, male or female, active or couch potato. She was just 14 when she convinced her mother to let her leave their Virginia Beach, Va., home and move to West Des Moines, Iowa, to train with Liang Chow, Shawn Johnson's coach. Though her host parents, Travis and Missy Parton, treated Douglas as if she was their fifth daughter, Douglas was so homesick she considered quitting gymnastics.


She's also been open about her family's financial struggles, hoping she can be a role model for lower income children.


"I want people to think, 'Gabby can do it, I can do it,'" Douglas said. "Set that bar. If you're going through struggles or injuries, don't let it stop you from what you want to accomplish."


The grace she showed under pressure — both on and off the floor — added to her appeal. When some fans criticized the way she wore her hair during the Olympics, Douglas simply laughed it off.


"They can say whatever they want. We all have a voice," she said. "I'm not going to focus on it. I'm not really going to focus on the negative."


Besides, she's having far too much fun.


Her autobiography, "Grace, Gold and Glory," is No. 4 on the New York Times' young adult list. She, Wieber and Fierce Five teammates Aly Raisman and McKayla Maroney recently wrapped up a 40-city gymnastics tour. She met President Barack Obama last month with the rest of the Fierce Five, and left the White House with a souvenir.


"We got a sugar cookie that they were making for the holidays," Douglas said. "I took a picture of it."


Though her busy schedule hasn't left time to train, Douglas insists she still intends to compete through the Rio de Janeiro Olympics in 2016.


No female Olympic champion has gone on to compete at the next Summer Games since Nadia Comaneci. But Douglas is still a relative newcomer to the elite scene — she'd done all of four international events before the Olympics — and Chow has said she hasn't come close to reaching her full potential. She keeps up with Chow through email and text messages, and plans to return to Iowa after her schedule clears up in the spring.


Of course, plenty of other athletes have said similar things and never made it back to the gym. But Douglas is determined, and she gets giddy just talking about getting a new floor routine.


"I think there's even higher bars to set," she said.


Because while being an Olympic champion may have changed her life, it hasn't changed her.


"I may be meeting cool celebrities and I'm getting amazing opportunities," she said. "But I'm still the same Gabby."


___


AP Projects Editor Brooke Lansdale contributed to this report.


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Goodbye, U.S. Postal Service?




This Christmas could be the Post Office's last, says John Avlon.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • The U.S. Postal Service is bleeding money and heading toward insolvency

  • John Avlon: Congress can save the postal service in deal on the fiscal cliff

  • He says the urgency is clear, let's hope for a Christmas miracle

  • Avlon: But be prepared that Washington dysfunction can doom the postal service




Editor's note: John Avlon is a CNN contributor and senior political columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is co-editor of the book "Deadline Artists: America's Greatest Newspaper Columns." He is a regular contributor to "Erin Burnett OutFront" and is a member of the OutFront Political Strike Team. For more political analysis, tune in to "Erin Burnett OutFront" at 7 ET weeknights.


(CNN) -- It's the time of year for dashing through the snow to the crowded post office, with arms full of holiday gifts for family and friends.


Not to break the atmosphere of holiday cheer, but this Christmas could be the last for the U.S. Postal Service. It is losing $25 million dollars a day and staring down insolvency -- unless Congress steps in to pass a reform package that reduces its costs.


With just a few days left in the congressional calendar, there is still some small hope for a Christmas miracle -- maybe the Postal Service can be saved as part of a deal on the fiscal cliff. But with even Hurricane Sandy relief stalled, skepticism is growing.



John Avlon

John Avlon



The real question is, what's taken them so long? After all, back in April the Senate passed an imperfect but bipartisan bill by 62-37. It would have saved some $20 billion, cut some 100 distribution centers, and reduced head count by an additional 100,000 through incentives for early retirement, while reducing red tape to encourage entrepreneurialism and keeping Saturday delivery in place for at least another two years. At the time, Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware said, "The situation is not hopeless; the situation is dire. My hope is that our friends over in the U.S. House, given the bipartisan steps we took this week, will feel a sense of urgency."



To which the House might as well have replied, "Not so much."


In August, the Postal Service defaulted for the first time, unable to make a $5.5 billion payment to fund future retirees' health benefits. The headline in Government Executive magazine said it all: "Postal Service defaults, Congress does nothing."


The usual suspects were at fault -- hyperpartisan politics and the ideological arrogance that always makes the perfect the enemy of the good.


House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa greeted the news of the Senate bill by calling it a "taxpayer-funded bailout." His primary complaint was that the Senate bill did not go far enough. He was not alone -- Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe also expressed disappointment at the scope of the Senate bill, saying that it fell "far short of the Postal Service's plan."






But Issa's alternative couldn't even get to a vote in the Republican-controlled House. And so nothing happened. Even after the USPS defaulted on a second $5.5 billion payment, the response was crickets.


Washington insiders said that action would be taken after the election, when lawmakers would be free to make potentially unpopular decisions. But despite a series of closed-door meetings, nothing has been done.


It's possible that the nearly $20 billion in savings could be part of a fiscal cliff deal. Sen. Joseph Lieberman has suggested that ending Saturday delivery, except for packages, could be part of a compromise that could save big bucks down the road. Another aspect of a savings plan could be suspending the USPS' onerous obligation to fully fund its pension costs upfront, a requirement that would push many businesses into bankruptcy. And last fiscal year, the post office posted a record $15.9 billion loss.


"As the nation creeps toward the 'fiscal cliff,' the U.S. Postal Service is clearly marching toward a financial collapse of its own," says Carper. "The Postal Service's financial crisis is growing worse, not better. It is imperative that Congress get to work on this issue and find a solution immediately. ... Recently key House and Senate leaders on postal reform have had productive discussions on a path forward, and while there may be some differences of opinion in some of the policy approaches needed to save the Postal Service, there is broad agreement that reform needs to happen -- the sooner the better."


The urgency couldn't be clearer -- but even at this yuletide 11th hour, signs of progress are slim to none. If Congress fails to pass a bill, we'll be back to square one in the new year, with the Senate needing to pass a new bill which will then have to be ratified by the House. There is just no rational reason to think that lift will be any easier in the next Congress than in the current lame duck Congress, where our elected officials are supposedly more free to do the right thing, freed from electoral consequences.


So as you crowd your local post office this holiday season, look around and realize that the clock is ticking. The Postal Service is fighting for its life. And Congress seems determined to ignore its cries for help.


"Neither rain nor snow nor sleet nor gloom of night" can stop the U.S. Postal Service from making its appointed rounds -- but congressional division and dysfunction apparently can.


Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.


Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Avlon.






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Martha Raddatz, Hot Off Debate Performance, Promoted at ABC News






NEW YORK (TheWrap.com) – Martha Raddatz, widely praised for her moderation of the vice presidential debate in October, has been given an expanded role as ABC News’ chief global affairs correspondent. Jonathan Karl, meanwhile, will become the network’s new chief White House correspondent, filling the void left by Jake Tapper‘s exit to CNN.


Raddatz will replace Tapper as the primary substitute for George Stephanopoulos on “This Week” and will contribute regularly to the Sunday morning show’s roundtable. Karl will also serve as a substitute and regularly appear on the roundtable.






Tapper departed ABC in part because he has long been interested in hosting “This Week” full-time, but Stephanopoulos has no plans to give up the hosting job, a person familiar with the situation told TheWrap.


ABC News President Ben Sherwood announced the new assignments for Raddatz and Karl on Thursday, soon after CNN announced Tapper’s hiring.


Karl has investigated wasteful federal spending, covered elections, and served as the network’s senior national security correspondent.


Raddatz has reported from the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House, and from conflict zones worldwide, including Afghanistan and Iraq.


But she has been perhaps most celebrated for keeping the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan on course after the moderator of the first presidential debate, Jim Lehrer, was accused of letting the candidates run amok.


TV News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Call for tougher banking reforms







Government plans to ring-fence the banks – trying to protect retail banking from the riskier investment side – “fall well short of what is required”, a report has warned.






The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards wants the government to “electrify” the fence so banks cannot make holes in it.


The government’s bank reforms will go before Parliament early next year.


The Treasury said it was committed to reforming the banking sector.


Vickers recommendations


The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, known as the Banking Commission for short, was asked by Chancellor George Osborne to study the draft version of the government’s Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill.


This follows last year’s recommendation by the Independent Commission on Banking, which was led by Sir John Vickers.


Sir John concluded that ring-fencing was the best way to protect “core” retail banking activities from any future investment banking losses, such as were seen during the global financial crisis.


The government’s proposed bill also spells out rules to protect depositors and prevent the use of taxpayer money for bailouts, thereby curtailing banks’ perception they are “too big to fail”.


Continue reading the main story



AAA-rating


The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower’s debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is minuscule.




The bill hinges on three main aspects:


  • ring-fencing or protecting retail banking

  • ensuring that bank losses fall on bank creditors and not depositors or taxpayers

  • making banks better able to absorb losses

Ring-fencing would ensure that retail services of a struggling lender can be carried on independently and smoothly even if authorities let the rest of the group fail.


For example, in the case of a failing banking group, regulators could sell off its core activities – thereby maintaining continuity for depositors – while allowing the rest of the organisation to go through a bankruptcy process.


Secondly, the proposed bill wants to rank retail deposits (but not pension liabilities) ahead of the claims of other bank creditors in the event of a bank insolvency.


Thirdly, banks are to hold a sufficient capital buffer – as outlined by global regulators – which means that if banks do fail, losses can be absorbed by shareholders and other creditors rather than the taxpayer.


“Electrification”


Under the draft legislation, the Treasury would have the authority to decide which banks ring-fencing should apply to, as well as specific activities to be undertaken, within ring-fenced banks.


The Prudential Regulation Authority, which will become the UK’s regulator for deposit-taking institutions in April under the Bank of England, would have the power to ensure the ring-fenced bank to carry on with its business.


But there has been much debate over whether to enforce a full separation between retail and investment activities – that is, a break-up. The recommendation by Sir John stopped short of such action.


Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the Banking Commission, said that the “electrification” of the ring fence should include the regulator being able to force the full separation of a bank’s retail and investment divisions, if the lender was found to be trying to break the fence.


“The proposals as they stand [in the Bill], fall well short of what is required,” he said.


“Over time, the ring-fence will be tested and challenged by the banks. Politicians too could succumb to lobbying from banks and others, adding to pressure to put holes in the ring-fence.”


Continue reading the main story
  • The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards was appointed in July following the Libor scandal and other episodes that damaged the reputation of banks in the UK

  • It includes MPs and peers and is chaired by Andrew Tyrie, who also heads the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee

  • Members include the next Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby

  • It heard evidence from major figures in the banking sector

  • Evidence included a warning from RBS boss Stephen Hester that ring-fencing banks’ retail and investment arms could increase the risk of institutions needing to be rescued

  • But Barclays chief executive Antony Jenkins told the commission that his bank was “embracing” the ring-fencing proposal

  • The commission has also heard from Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, about his US proposals to ensure bank safety


He added: “For the ring-fence to succeed, banks need to be discouraged from gaming the rules. All history tells us they will do this unless incentivised not to.”


“That is why we recommend electrification. The legislation needs to set out a reserve power for separation – the regulator needs to know he can use it.”


Anthony Browne, the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association (BBA), welcomed the report, but warned that uncertainty over banks’ prospects could have a negative impact on their ability to lend.


“The risk here is creating uncertainty. If it’s perpetually hanging over the banking sector that individual banks or the whole sector could be broken up at some point, then it’s going to be difficult to return to having an investable banking sector that can be customer-focused and globally competitive and do what it should be doing, which is lending to homeowners and businesses,” he said.


Ed Balls, Labour’s shadow chancellor said: “As Ed Miliband and I said at the Labour conference this year, if the letter and spirit of the Vickers proposals are not delivered and we do not see cultural change in our banks, full separation will be necessary.


“The Commission is clearly right to say the jury is still out and to demand a reserve power for full separation of the banks.”


‘Consensus commitment’



The Commission’s report comes a month after Mr Osborne urged its members not to send the government’s proposed reform “back to square one” by “unpicking” the consensus on how it should be carried out.


A Treasury spokesman said on Thursday evening: “The government is committed to reforming the financial sector and putting in place a regulatory structure that learns the lessons of the past and protects taxpayers in the future.”


“It has been committed to building consensus and has consulted widely on these reforms over the last two and half years. The Banking Reform Bill is the next step in that.


“The government is grateful to the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards for its scrutiny of the draft bill and notes that it, ‘welcomes the government’s action to bring forward legislation to implement a ring-fence’.”


The spokesman added that the government would study the report and respond in detail when the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill is formally introduced to Parliament early next year.


BBC News – Business





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