Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

Stock index futures point to flat open






LONDON (Reuters) – Stock index futures indicated a flat-to-slightly lower open on Wall Street on Friday, with some traders citing nervousness ahead of results from financial group Wells Fargo due later in the day.


Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were flat by 04.30 EST, while futures for the Dow Jones were 0.1 percent lower.






“There’s maybe a little bit of nervousness ahead of Wells Fargo’s results,” said Darren Easton, director of trading at London-based firm Logic Investments.


Boeing Co’s 787 Dreamliner jet suffered a cracked cockpit window and an oil leak on separate flights in Japan on Friday – the latest in a series of incidents to test confidence in the sophisticated new aircraft.


Infosys Ltd posted flat third-quarter net profits, beating analyst expectations, as the second-largest Indian software services provider maintained margins despite higher operating costs. It also raised revenue forecast for the full year to end March.


Credit card company American Express Co said it would cut about 5,400 jobs, or 8.5 percent of its workforce, as it restructures its business and pays legal bills.


SAC Capital Advisors expects client withdrawals of at least $ 1 billion in 2013 as the hedge fund battles intense regulatory scrutiny over insider trading allegations, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.


Unsecured creditors of MF Global Holdings Ltd on Thursday proposed a liquidation plan that could pay the brokerage’s former customers in full.


Exxon Mobil Corp reported flaring at its 344,500 barrel-per-day (bpd) Beaumont, Texas, refinery, according to a message posted on a community information line.


Tycoon Carlos Slim’s retail unit said it plans to relist on the Mexican stock exchange, offering a 15.2 percent stake to raise some $ 720 million to fund expansion plans, including possible acquisitions.


Supervalu Inc struck a $ 3.3 billion deal to reduce its burdensome debt by selling five of its supermarket chains to an investor group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP .


The Federal Reserve’s policy of zero interest rates and asset purchases is appropriate and perhaps even insufficient, said Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed.


European shares were flat on Friday although the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> remained within sight of two-year highs.</.fteu3>


Asian shares and Brent crude futures fell as a pick-up in Chinese inflation prompted profit taking, although an improving outlook for global economies curbed losses.


U.S. stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 <.spx> ended at a fresh five-year high as stronger-than-expected exports from China spurred optimism about global growth prospects.</.spx>


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 80.71 points, or 0.60 percent, to 13,471.22. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 11.10 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,472.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> added 15.95 points, or 0.51 percent, to 3,121.76.</.ixic></.dji>


(Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Susan Fenton)


Business News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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No change to inflation measure







There will be no change to the way the retail prices index is calculated, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has decided.






After a three-month consultation, the ONS has decided not to bring the RPI more into line with the slower rising consumer prices index (CPI).


Instead, a new additional index of inflation will be created.


However, the RPI will continue to be used for the uprating of private sector pensions and index-linked bonds.


The National Statistician, Jil Matheson, said: “There is significant value to users in maintaining the continuity of the existing RPI’s long time series without major change, so that it may continue to be used for long-term indexation and for index-linked gilts and bonds.”


The inherent gap between RPI and CPI, which runs at an average of 1.2 percentage points a year, has become increasingly dominated by the so-called “formula effect” – the result of using different methods for calculating the average price of goods and services in the economy.


Any decision to alter the current RPI index, so that it rose more slowly, would have reduced the future pension increases of millions of private sector pensioners and cut the income of investors in index-linked government bonds and savers with index-linked savings certificates.


Decision welcomed


The ONS decision means that from March 2013, it will publish a new version of the RPI alongside the existing one.


The main difference will be that the new index will use the same formula as the CPI for calculating average prices.


That will mean the new RPI measure will usually rise more slowly than the long established version.


Continue reading the main story


Ros Altmann, the director general of the financial services company Saga and former government adviser on pensions policy, hailed the ONS decision as “brilliant”.


“Consultation responses overwhelmingly favoured no change so would be hard to ignore,” she tweeted.


“There’s no right or wrong exact measure of inflation, each one has flaws.”


Tom McPhail of Hargreaves Lansdown said: “This will be welcome news for all those dependent on pension benefits, who might otherwise have suffered a drop of between 0.5% to 1% a year in their income in real terms.”


“It will probably come as a disappointment to employers sponsoring final salary schemes.


“A reduction in the rate of RPI would have reduced some pension scheme liabilities; this in turn would have reduced the amount of money which employers have to pump into these schemes to reduce their deficits,” he added.


Continue reading the main story

Britain’s Office for National Statistics has decided, when it comes to inflation, it’s better to be consistent than to be right”



End Quote



The Treasury confirmed it would continue using the RPI measure for calculating the return on both old and new index-linked bonds.


“For gilt investors, future cash flows on existing index-linked gilts will continue to be calculated by reference to RPI,” said the Economic Secretary, Sajid Javid.


“The government will continue to issue new index-linked gilts linked to the RPI.”


The ONS has already decided to launch another new measure of inflation in March, to be called CPIH.


This will be a version of the current CPI index, but adjusted to measure changes in the cost of buying and owning a home.


The main CPI measure excludes those costs, something which has long been seen as its major flaw.


BBC News – Business





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German industry production up less than expected






BERLIN (AP) — Industrial production in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, rose less than expected in November and not enough to offset a substantial fall the previous month.


The Economy Ministry said Wednesday that production increased by 0.2 percent compared with October, well short of the 1 percent gain economists had expected. The previous month’s decline was revised to 2 percent from the initial reading of 2.6 percent.






Recent data have supported assessments that the economy contracted in last year’s final quarter but that the weakness was likely only temporary. Germany remains in far better shape than many other countries in the 17-nation eurozone.


The November figures were pulled up by a 1.4 percent increase in production of investment goods such as factory machinery.


Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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The Texas Stem Cell Showdown






Cecelia Johnson was an artist, cellist, tap dancer, and 22-year-old college student when she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 2001. The disease, in which the body’s immune system attacks the tissue protecting nerves, proceeds at its own pace: Sometimes the deterioration is halting, sometimes it can be delayed, but there is no cure. Johnson’s decline was swift.


Six years after her diagnosis, undone by fatigue and pain and often unable to walk, Johnson gave up on conventional medicine. In the spring of 2007 she traveled from her home in Houston to Mexico, where an American doctor gave her an infusion of adult stem cells that were supposed to regenerate her damaged tissue. “I thought this guy might be peddling snake oil,” says Johnson. “But I would have taken snake oil.” The procedure cost her $ 14,000.






Within a few months, she began to feel better. The effects weren’t lasting, though, and she returned to Mexico every year until the Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested her doctor in December 2011. Francisco Morales was accused of conspiracy and fraud: He wasn’t a licensed doctor, and he was using umbilical-cord stem cells he bought in the U.S. for treatments that the Food and Drug Administration had not approved. He pleaded guilty in September 2012 and awaits sentencing.


By then, Johnson had learned she could receive infusions of her own stem cells in Houston. An orthopedic surgeon there, Stanley Jones, had recently co-founded Celltex Therapeutics, a company that multiplied and stored adult stem cells. It took Johnson and her mother much of the spring and summer of 2012 to raise the $ 30,000 fee for the treatment, which was part of a clinical study. “A study I have to pay $ 30,000 for? Sure, I’m skeptical,” says Johnson. “The point is that stem cells are available, I desperately need them, and I will pay for them.” In August, Johnson had several hundred thousand stem cells harvested from her abdominal fat.


ff15e  feature stemcell02  01  inline405 The Texas Stem Cell ShowdownPhotograph by Thomas Prior for Bloomberg BusinessweekEller and Jones founded Celltex in 2011


Jones was not just a doctor, he was also a satisfied customer. He had been treated for autoimmune arthritis with his own adult stem cells through a South Korean company, RNL Bio. In March 2011, he and Houston businessman David Eller founded Celltex, one of the first commercial stem cell laboratories in the country. They had RNL’s technology and eventually some 200 paying patients desperate for relief. One of them was Texas Governor Rick Perry, who suffered from back problems. Together they encouraged the state medical authority to let doctors provide stem cell treatments under its supervision.


Then the FDA got involved: The agency inspected Celltex’s lab, found 14 major manufacturing problems, and later warned the company it was illegally marketing an unlicensed drug. Celltex shut down the lab in early October 2012, four days before Johnson was to receive her first batch of cells. It hasn’t yet resumed processing stem cells for Johnson or anyone else. In a December letter to patients the company stated: “Celltex remains fully committed to advance the most promising new field in human health in decades—regenerative medicine.”


Celltex’s venture raises some of the most vexing, emotional issues in the business of medicine. Stem cells hold enormous promise, but promise isn’t proof, and anecdotal evidence isn’t science. Small companies often can’t do the research required by the FDA and make money at the same time. Some patients will pay to be part of an experiment, but many doctors and regulators don’t think they should. In Texas the science of stem cells has collided with a governor’s ambitions, a businessman’s optimism, a doctor’s faith, and patients’ hopes. “It seemed too good to be true,” Johnson says, “and it was.”
 
 
Stem cells, often thought of as the body’s master cells, help form and repair tissue, organs, and blood. There are different types of stem cells, each with their own capabilities. Embryonic stem cells, potentially the most powerful, are the most controversial; George W. Bush restricted federal funding for embryonic stem cell research when he was in office. Induced pluripotent stem cells are adult cells that have been genetically reprogrammed to have some attributes of embryonic stem cells. Adult stem cells are believed to exist in tissue throughout the body. The main function of mesenchymal adult stem cells, the type Celltex works with, is to repair tissue damaged by daily use. They also have anti-inflammatory properties. The cells can be found in special niches in bone marrow, umbilical-cord blood, muscle, and fat. When the body is injured, the cells leave their niche and become more specialized, but they are not, like embryonic stem cells, able to transform into any kind of cell. A blood-forming cell can become a red blood cell; it can’t become a brain cell.


ff15e  feature stemcell02  02  inline202 The Texas Stem Cell ShowdownDr. Gary D. Gaugler/PhototakeA blood-forming adult stem cell, found in bone marrow


Hundreds of clinical studies are under way in the U.S. to test the safety and efficacy of stem cells for all sorts of disorders: Alzheimer’s, Crohn’s, Epstein-Barr, lymphoma, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, infertility. Scientists say stem cells could help repair the heart or spine, regenerate cartilage, and improve brain function after a stroke. “We’re formed from stem cells, everything about our body is a stem cell product,” says James Willerson, president of the Texas Heart Institute, where about half of the research conducted involves stem cells. “I believe the right cells in the right place in the right person will do amazing things.” Arnold Caplan, a professor of biology at Case Western Reserve University and founder of two stem cell companies, says: “It sounds like stem cells could be the magic elixir for every malady. The answer is that, on a scientific basis, they could be.”


So far the FDA has approved only one stem cell product, Hemacord, derived from the umbilical cord, which could help those with certain blood cancers as well as metabolic and immune system disorders. (Bone marrow transplants such as those used to treat leukemia patients are considered medical procedures, not products.) In a note to consumers on its website, the agency warns about the potential for stem cells to grow excessively once back in the body and develop into tumors. “Stem cells seem so seductive,” says George Daley, a founder of the Harvard Stem Cell Institute, an organization that supports research and its clinical applications. “It’s easy to be told how they work and think they can help you. But we know from centuries of experience with medicine that anecdote is a very unreliable way of making medical advances. Medicine has been misled since the time of the leeches.”
 
 
Jones used to think stem cells were hokum. That began to change in September 2009, when he experienced his first stab of pain. His right wrist swelled, then his left knee. The pain became excruciating. Jones, who was 66, had a thriving surgical practice in Houston. He also owned a medical day spa with his wife that offered skin rejuvenating treatments and other services. Yet he could barely work.


He was diagnosed with a form of arthritis that occurs when the immune system turns on a person, attacking the joints. The symptoms come and go, and no one really knows why. Jones took medicine to reduce the inflammation, but he was nauseated, lost 30 pounds, and was often bedridden. Then he heard from a friend who had also suffered severe arthritis. She had been successfully treated with her own adult stem cells through RNL Bio. “It was a call from heaven,” says Jones.


When he contacted RNL in December 2009, Jones learned that the company was trying to break into the U.S. market and planned to open a clinic in Koreatown in Los Angeles. An executive from its American subsidiary, Human Biostar, quickly met with Jones. Soon after, the doctor signed on as a customer. His wife, Kathi, who had Reynaud’s, a disorder that affected the blood flow to her fingers, decided to be treated, too.


In March 2010 they each had about two teaspoons of fat extracted from their abdomens at their medical spa: a mini-liposuction. The fat was sent to RNL’s lab in Seoul, where technicians removed about 250,000 stem cells from each fatty lump, then multiplied the cells in a medium that included ascorbic acid, calcium, insulin, hydrocortisone, an antibiotic, a bit of bovine pituitary extract, and a protein that acts as a growth factor. By May there were 600 million cells waiting in vials for Jones and 600 million for his wife. The couple stopped in Seoul to see the lab before going to Kyoto, Japan, where once a week for three weeks they each received 200 million cells intravenously.


RNL’s stem cell technology is patented, and clinical trials are under way in South Korea, but the therapy has not been approved there as a treatment for any disease. Patients must get their infusions and injections from doctors in China and Japan. Jeong Chan Ra, the veterinary doctor who founded RNL in 2000, has received 46 infusions of adult stem cells in the past four years. “In the grand tradition of many scientists like Sir Isaac Newton and Jonas Salk, I experimented upon myself first to confirm that adult stem cells cultured and expanded by RNL Bio are safe,” he says via e-mail.


While in Seoul, Jones called a patient of his: Governor Perry, who had declared his intention to make Texas the adult stem cell capital of the world. (Perry opposes embryonic stem cell research on the grounds that it destroys life.) Jones told Perry about the miraculous recoveries he had witnessed and said he felt called to bring the technology to Texas—although he had not yet undergone the treatments. After he returned to Houston, five months passed—he felt no improvements. “Then I woke up one morning and I felt fantastic,” he says. “It was a new beginning.” Kathi’s symptoms disappeared, too.


Jones found he needed another stem cell infusion four months later (he has had them every four months since) to keep his symptoms under control. “I’m afraid to be without stem cells,” he says. So far he’s received 3 billion stem cells by infusion and injection and spent more than $ 100,000. Plenty of people, including medical colleagues, have suggested he’s experiencing a placebo effect. Jones is convinced he’s not. “My therapy was real, it was effective, and it made me better.” The most rigorous trials—double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled—are designed to prove any benefits are due solely to the treatment. “There’s no question that with therapies like this there is a very high placebo effect,” says Caplan of Case Western. “The FDA will shudder, but I say, if you want to pay $ 25,000 and get pain relief for four months as a placebo, go do it.”


In December 2010, a few months after Jones’s initial recovery, RNL was the subject of an investigation by the International Cellular Medicine Society, a group trying to establish stem cell standards, which counted RNL among its members. Two patients had died after receiving stem cells expanded by RNL’s lab in Seoul. The report concluded that the death of one patient was likely to have been caused or triggered by the administration of the stem cells by a doctor in Japan. RNL says the report relieved it of responsibility. The South Korean government did not look into the deaths.
 
 
Back in Texas, Governor Perry told David Eller about Jones’s improved health. Eller, 74, is a longtime campaign contributor and occasional adviser to Perry who has known Jones for more than three decades. He’s served as chairman of the Board of Regents at Texas A&M University, Perry’s alma mater, and president of DuPont Pharmaceuticals’ European operations. He also founded Granada, a company that specialized in the genetic engineering of farm animals. In 1992 it settled an investor lawsuit alleging securities fraud and denied any wrongdoing.


Governor Perry and Eller saw in Jones’s recovery a promising business opportunity. “Stem cells are my passion,” Perry says. “I have two interests. The first is finding cures for diseases that are complicating people’s lives. The second is economic, the companies that come out of the work with adult stem cells.” Others were optimistic about stem cells, too: A 2011 report from Rice University’s Baker Institute cited figures predicting U.S. revenue from stem cell products could reach $ 16 billion by 2020. (They were $ 12.6 million in 2007.)


Eller looked into RNL’s record and came away satisfied. “I felt that RNL had as good a therapy and technology as anyone else I knew of,” he says. “Because of that, and the state of Texas was behind it and I knew the poster child, Stan, I decided I would try.”


Eller says RNL’s stem cell science was ahead of the FDA’s regulations. At issue was a fundamental question: Are stem cell infusions and injections biologic drugs like vaccines, which require FDA oversight, or are they part of the practice of medicine, which falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Texas Medical Board? The answer turns on the notion of “minimal manipulation.” If the cells are more than minimally manipulated in the lab, they’re considered a drug. RNL says the new cells are always identical copies of those it harvests from a patient, which makes them a treatment, not a drug. The FDA and many in the scientific community have not come to the same conclusion. “The reason we started in Texas this way is that adult stem cells are not considered a drug in Texas,” says RNL’s Ra. “We had the expectation that treatment in Texas was possible without FDA approval.”


Eller and Ra signed a licensing agreement in mid-March 2011 that laid out an ambitious business plan. Celltex paid $ 30 million to RNL, money Eller raised from at least 10 investors, including Jones and himself. Eller became the chairman and chief executive officer of Celltex, Jones the chief medical officer. RNL would set up a lab in nearby Sugar Land, Tex., and run it until Celltex was ready to take over. The lab would process the cells of 250 patients a month; doctors would administer the treatments in their own offices. RNL would receive 20 percent of any revenue Celltex earned from licensing the technology to others in North America; the terms suggest RNL believed Celltex could bring in some $ 1.5 billion this way. RNL also purchased a 10 percent share of Celltex, and Ra took a seat on the board of directors. Celltex says an independent assessment later valued the company at $ 250 million.


Governor Perry was the first patient. “I was excited to be first,” he says. In June 2011, Jones took two teaspoons of fat from Perry’s hip, then sent it to Celltex’s new lab. On July 1, Jones performed a previously scheduled back operation on Perry, during which he injected adult stem cells into Perry’s spine and blood system to help speed his recovery. In early August the Texas Tribune revealed that Perry had undergone the treatment. Daley, of the Harvard Stem Cell Institute, said Perry had exercised poor judgment. Perry said he felt great. On Aug. 13 he declared his candidacy for president.


Rick Hardcastle, a Texas legislator who’d been living with multiple sclerosis for a decade, became patient No. 5. “The infusions were completely uneventful. I was eating Popeyes chicken and getting an IV,” he says. After the first one, Hardcastle says his balance was restored. (MS can damage the cerebellum, which maintains balance in the body.) “Celltex tells you that half the time the treatment might not do what you want. But it won’t hurt you. I’ll take 50-50 odds, and I’ll pay for it.” It cost $ 30,000.


Jones received lots of phone calls at his private practice during the fall of 2011 from people interested in the treatments Perry and Hardcastle had undergone. “Word spreads quickly when you’re miserable, desperate for help,” he says. Celltex didn’t advertise its services. The Texas Medical Board had not yet come up with a regulatory framework for doctors to offer stem cell therapies. It did hold monthly informational seminars at a luxury hotel in Houston. Debbie Bertrand attended one in September and became patient No. 13 a few weeks later. Bertrand, 60, who was diagnosed with MS in 2001, had tried to get into FDA-approved drug trials but never qualified. Instead she gave herself daily injections of a standard MS drug that ate away tissue at the site of the shot and left her feeling like she had the flu. In the fall of 2010 she traveled to Tijuana, Mexico, for a stem cell treatment that improved her double vision and left her less fatigued. She was hoping the more potent dose of stem cells she could receive through Celltex would allow her to get out of her wheelchair.
 
 
Last April, 10 months after Celltex’s lab opened, two FDA inspectors arrived in Sugar Land and stayed for 10 days. They found the lab couldn’t guarantee the viability and sterility of the cells or their type. Its manufacturing records were sloppy or incomplete; tabletop equipment was operated on the floor; and it was using supplies labeled “FOR RESEARCH USE ONLY. CAUTION: Not intended for human or animal diagnostic or therapeutic uses.”


“To read it as they wrote it sounds just horrible,” says Eller. He and Celltex’s executive vice president, Andrea Ferrenz, say the inspection was complicated by the fact that the records were in Korean. “We’re confident that the lab’s procedures were sterile, the cells were viable, they were given back to the right person,” says Ferrenz. As for the supplies labeled for research only, she says it’s commonly understood that facilities determine how they will use such material. Says Ricardo Rodriguez, president of the board of the International Cellular Medicine Society: “It’s one thing for Celltex to take an ideological position [with regard to the FDA] and still do everything possible to guarantee patient safety. They were not doing everything possible.”


Bertrand read the report, too. “Whatever they were doing wrong wasn’t hurting me,” she says. “I was feeling better.” Bertrand has had eight infusions through Celltex, about 1.6 billion stem cells altogether, at a cost of $ 27,000. She uses a walker instead of a wheelchair and says she’s strong enough to exercise, can straighten her fingers, and has improved bladder control.


Nor did the report dissuade other MS patients from signing on with Celltex. The FDA-approved drugs for MS don’t work for everyone and can have terrible side effects. “The FDA has created a group of risk takers,” says Jennifer Ziegler, who was diagnosed with MS in 2004. A former Kansas City Chiefs cheerleader, she has become the unofficial leader of a band of MS patients agitating to receive stem cell treatments in the U.S. “When we heard the FDA had been down to Sugar Land, all it made me do was want to hurry up faster,” she says.


Lester Smith, a prominent Houston oilman, cancer survivor, and philanthropist, had the same thought: better get as many stem cells as possible. He had osteoarthritis, brought on by his years as a competitive ballroom dancer. From January 2012 through September, he received 2.5 billion stem cells, hoping for relief. His wife, and dance partner, received 1.4 billion—her arthritis wasn’t as bad. The couple paid $ 165,000 in all. Smith, who also uses testosterone gel, says his pain is gone; his cholesterol level, blood pressure, pulse, and body fat percentage have all dropped. “Ninety-nine percent of the doctors I talked to said I shouldn’t do this,” he says. “After a while I quit asking.”


Just as the FDA inspection of Celltex’s lab was getting under way, the Texas Medical Board made the announcement Eller and Jones had been anticipating: Doctors could charge patients for experimental therapies as long as the experiments had been approved by a local institutional review board. Those boards could be for-profit operations themselves. “We effectively said these federal rules protecting patients no longer apply,” says W. Roy Smythe, a surgeon and member of the medical board who voted against the changes.


The ruling was criticized by many in the scientific community who would have preferred that Texas work with the FDA. “But people who want to make money don’t want to wait to make money,” says Paul Knoepfler, an associate professor at the University of California at Davis School of Medicine who conducts research with induced pluripotent and cancer stem cells. “And there’s a lot of patients who don’t want to wait, either.”


In May, six Korean-American patients living near Los Angeles sued RNL’s U.S. subsidiary, Human Biostar, for fraud, alleging that the treatments they received did not improve their diabetes, arthritis, high blood pressure, or insomnia. Eller says the suit has nothing to do with Celltex. Says Ra in an e-mail: “I am well aware that many people are worried about the reputation of RNL Bio. These are not good events. However, since I have confidence in the scientific verification of the safety and efficacy of RNL technology, I do not worry about this.” RNL has filed a counterclaim.


There were soon other matters to worry about. In September the FDA issued a warning letter stating that Celltex was illegally promoting an unlicensed product (the cultured and expanded cells) it considers a biologic drug. And the agency reiterated its concerns about the lab, despite attempts by Celltex and RNL over the summer to comply with the requirements. “We’re going to do whatever the FDA tells us to do,” says Eller. “It doesn’t mean we agree. We respectfully disagree. The FDA thinks everyone who’s walking around is a biologic drug. We want to explain why we think what we’re doing is correct.” Governor Perry says he disagrees with the regulators, too. “Hopefully, the FDA will realize that what’s going on in Texas is good medicine and good economics.”


“The FDA shares the same goal as patients with serious and life-threatening diseases of getting novel products to the individuals who so desperately need them,” Rita Chappelle, a spokeswoman for the agency, says via e-mail. “The regulations for cellular and tissue products are risk-based: If the risk is low, the level of regulatory oversight is correspondingly low. This unique regulatory approach ensures that the regulations are not too burdensome.”


In the meantime, Eller says Celltex has collected data from 230 patients, all of whom paid to be treated for different maladies, mostly related to the immune system. “We wanted to help people like me,” says Jones. The studies were approved by a company called Texas Applied Biomedical Services in January 2012. It, too, received a warning letter from the FDA in September stating that its members didn’t have the expertise to review specific research, had conflicts of interest, and kept inadequate records. The president, Joyce Heinrich, says the company has made the changes the FDA sought and is waiting to hear back. It continues to oversee Celltex’s studies.


Eller expects the results to be published sometime next year. “It will be the largest and possibly most important study on adult stem cells that’s been produced anywhere,” he says. Adds Jones: “I can tell you it looks good.”


Following the FDA’s rules for approval for a new drug is usually an expensive and lengthy process and not an easy way to run a profitable business. Celltex won’t be able to charge patients tens of thousands of dollars to participate in its trials. And some patients will receive placebos instead of stem cells. “I don’t want to treat people with placebos,” says Jones. “You wouldn’t want to be in a trial where you were next to someone who might get well and you might die.” Jones has given up his role as the company’s chief medical officer, though he remains a board member. “All the people who are critical of what we’re trying to accomplish will wake up one day with a debilitating disease, and they’ll be begging for stem cells.”


By late November, Celltex’s situation became more complicated. The company sought an injunction against RNL, alleging it was holding hostage the stem cells of its customers. The cells are stored at -400F in vials suspended in a stainless steel tank filled with liquid nitrogen. According to Celltex’s court filings, RNL had barred Celltex from entering the lab and refused to release the cells to anyone. RNL also told Celltex that its subsidiary, Human Biostar, was independent and wanted $ 1 million in fees as well as $ 6,000 a day for storing the cells. Human Biostar filed its own lawsuit against Celltex, claiming the unpaid processing and storage fees. In mid-December a judge issued a temporary restraining order that reads like a child custody arrangement. Celltex can set up supervised visits to the lab and tank. It can also remove a customer’s cells with a doctor’s order and a check for $ 5,000. The company says it’s now building its own lab.


Among the cells being fought over are those of Jennifer Ziegler and Cecelia Johnson. Ziegler, one of the last to receive stem cells processed at the Sugar Land lab, is pleading with the FDA to rethink how it regulates stem cell therapies. “We want the right to be treated with our own stem cells,” she says. As for Johnson, she says: “Our hopes were built up by Celltex, and then we were dropped low.” In November she paid $ 12,000 for a stem cell injection into her spine and an intravenous infusion at a clinic in Frankfurt. She had been in severe pain for the past two years, rarely leaving home, and then only in a wheelchair. A few weeks after her treatment, she started to feel lighter, clearer. The pain diminished. “I walked around a tree outside my apartment. I lay on the grass,” she says. “I don’t want to sound like an infomercial or someone at a church revival. This is a cruel disease. I’m not waiting for a miracle. But if I could have stem cells every six months, I could live.”


Businessweek.com — Top News





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Canada leading indicator edges up 0.1 percent in November






OTTAWA (Reuters) – The composite leading indicator for Canada rose 0.1 percent in November, slowing down from October on a housing market downturn and weak manufacturing as the economy hits a soft patch.


The index rose 0.2 percent in October and was up every month in 2012 except July, said a report on Monday by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. The think tank developed the modified indicator last year to replace the one discontinued by the country’s official statistics agency.






“The marginal gains in the leading indicator augur slow economic growth into early 2013, although the manufacturing sector turned down as uncertainty grew about the global economy,” the institute said in a release.


The housing index fell 3.3 percent in November, the fifth consecutive decline as housing starts and existing home sales weakened.


In manufacturing, new orders fell 0.7 percent and the average workweek shrank by 0.3 percent.


Employment insurance claims rose for the first time in eight months in spite of strong employment data in the fourth quarter.


The stock market and commodity prices were the main areas of strength offsetting the weakness elsewhere.


(Reporting by Louise Egan. Editing by Andre Grenon)


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Air France-KLM in “advanced” talks to buy Alitalia: report






ROME (Reuters) – Franco-Dutch carrier Air France-KLM is in “advanced” talks to take control of Italy’s flagship airline Alitalia by the summer, Rome’s Messaggero newspaper reported on Sunday without citing its sources.


Alitalia is owned by CAI, a consortium of investors that bought the then-bankrupt airline in 2008. CAI is already partly owned by Air France-KLM. Alitalia’s shareholders can exercise options to trade their shares when a lock-up period ends on January 12.






In May, Air France said it would probably wait until at least 2014 before using its option to take control of Alitalia, in which it has held 25 percent since January 2009.


Air France-KLM has offered shareholders a 20 percent premium on what they paid for the airline in 2008, the newspaper said, probably in Air France-KLM shares. CAI paid a little more than 1 billion euros to take over Alitalia five years ago.


Alitalia and Air France-KLM officials were not immediately available for comment.


Alitalia returned to profit in the third quarter after reporting losses in the first half, booking a net profit of 27 million euros ($ 35.2 million), down from 70 million euros a year before.


Net debt rose to 923 million euros at the end of September, up by 61 million euros from the end of June. ($ 1 = 0.7666 euros)


(Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Helen Massy-Beresford)


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Obama says U.S. can’t afford more showdowns over debt, deficits






HONOLULU (Reuters) – Fresh from the long legislative fight to prevent a “fiscal cliff” of tax hikes and spending cuts, President Barack Obama warned on Saturday that the United States could not afford further budget showdowns this year or in the future.


Obama, who returned to Hawaii for a family vacation shortly after the House of Representatives passed a compromise bill on Tuesday, said in his weekly radio and Internet address that the new law was just one step toward fixing the country’s fiscal and economic problems.






“We still need to do more to put Americans back to work while also putting this country on a path to pay down its debt, and our economy can’t afford more protracted showdowns or manufactured crises along the way,” he said in the address, broadcast on Saturday.


“Because even as our businesses created 2 million new jobs last year – including 168,000 new jobs last month – the messy brinkmanship in Congress made business owners more uncertain and consumers less confident.”


Government data released on Friday showed the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 7.8 percent in December.


Lawmakers in the Senate and the House passed legislation this week that raised tax rates for the wealthiest Americans while making Bush-era tax cuts for the middle class permanent.


It was a victory for Obama, who campaigned for re-election largely on a promise to achieve that goal.


Republicans have indicated that they are ready for another fight over the U.S. debt ceiling. Representative Dave Camp, delivering his party’s weekly address, warned, at least indirectly, that they would expect spending cuts in return for raising the ceiling again.


“Many of our Democrat colleagues just don’t seem to get it. Throughout the fiscal cliff discussions, the president and the Democrats who control Washington repeatedly refused to take any meaningful steps to make Washington live within its means,” Camp said.


“As we turn our attention toward future discussions on the debt limit and the budget, we must identify responsible ways to tackle Washington‘s wasteful spending.”


Obama repeated that he would not negotiate on the debt ceiling, hoping to avoid the 2011 conflict that led to a credit rating downgrade and pushed the country close to default.


“If Congress refuses to give the United States the ability to pay its bills on time, the consequences for the entire global economy could be catastrophic,” he said. “Our families and our businesses cannot afford that dangerous game again.”


Obama said he was willing to do more on deficit reduction and suggested that the hike in tax rates for wealthy Americans was not the last tax change he expected to make.


“Spending cuts must be balanced with more reforms to our tax code,” he said. “The wealthiest individuals and the biggest corporations shouldn’t be able to take advantage of loopholes and deductions that aren’t available to most Americans.”


(Editing by Christopher Wilson)


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Infosys says media report of firing 5,000 staff wrong






(Reuters) – India‘s Infosys Ltd said on Friday a newspaper report it was planning to fire up to 5,000 poorly performing workers was “wrong”, although it encourages “chronic under-performers” to leave as part of its staff management.


Infosys , India’s second-largest software services exporter, was sacking up to 5,000 poor performers to trim costs, the Economic Times reported earlier.






Infosys, which is also listed in the United States, added the number of potential under-performers that could leave the company was “significantly lower” than the 5,000 quoted in the media report.


(Reporting by Harichandan Arakali in BANGALORE; Editing by Rafael Nam)


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Starbucks to open first outlet in Vietnam in early February






(Reuters) – Starbucks Corp said it will set up its first outlet in Vietnam early next month as the U.S. chain continues to expand in fast-growing Asian markets.


Starbucks said it will partner with Hong Kong‘s Maxim’s Group to open its first store in Ho Chi Minh City and reiterated that Asia continues to be a significant growth driver for the company.






“Vietnam is one of the most dynamic and exciting markets in the world and we are proud to add Vietnam as the 12th market across the China and Asia-Pacific region,” said John Culver, president, Starbucks China and Asia Pacific.


Starbucks already buys some of the highest-quality arabica coffee from Vietnam and said it is committed to sourcing more from the region in the long-run.


Vietnam is the second-biggest coffee producer in the world after Brazil.


Starbucks operates more than 3,300 stores across 11 countries in the China and Asia-Pacific region.


Through its licensed partner, Coffee Concepts (Hong Kong) Ltd, a unit of Hong Kong’s Maxim’s Group, Starbucks operates more than 130 stores in Hong Kong and Macau. Last year, Starbucks opened its first store in India.


(Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore and Ho Binh Minh in Hanoi; Editing by Matt Driskill)


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Stock index futures surge on fiscal deal






PARIS (Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Wednesday after lawmakers passed a bill preventing huge tax hikes and spending cuts that had threatened to push the economy into recession.


Futures for the S&P 500 were up 1.7 percent, Dow Jones futures were up 1.2 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.3 percent at 1103 GMT.






The House of Representatives voted for a bill passed on Monday by the Senate that will raise taxes on wealthy individuals and families and preserve certain other benefits that will, together, soften some of the blow that would have been sustained without an agreement to avoid the “fiscal cliff.


(Reporting by Blaise Robinson; editing by Simon Jessop)


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US Senate approves key tax deal









President Obama said a larger deal could be accomplished “in several steps”



The US Senate has approved a deal to avert general tax hikes and spending cuts known as the “fiscal cliff”.


The bill, which raises taxes for the wealthy, came after lengthy talks between Vice-President Joe Biden and Senate Republicans.


The House is due to consider it later. Spending cuts have been delayed for two months to allow a wider agreement.


Congress missed the deadline to pass a bill, but few effects will be felt as Tuesday is a US public holiday.


Tax cuts approved during the presidency of George W Bush formally expired at midnight (05:00 GMT).


Without approval in the House, huge tax rises for virtually all working Americans will kick in automatically.


Analysts warned that if the full effects of the fiscal cliff were allowed to take hold, the resulting reduction in consumer spending could spark a new recession.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



American politicians certainly know how to take it to the wire – and just a little bit beyond”



End Quote



The compromise deal reached on Monday seeks to avoid this by extending the tax cuts for Americans earning under $ 400,000 (£246,000) – up from the $ 250,000 level Democrats had originally sought.


A huge spending cut that would see $ 1.2tn cut from the federal budget over 10 years has been deferred for two months, allowing Congress and the White House to reopen negotiations.


The Senate approved the compromise bill by 89-8. “If we do nothing, the threat of a recession is very real,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said. “Passing this agreement does not mean negotiations halt, far from it.”


In addition to the income tax rates and spending cuts, the package includes:


Continue reading the main story

What is the fiscal cliff?


  • On 1 January 2013, tax rises and huge spending cuts come into force – the so-called fiscal cliff

  • The deadline was put in place in 2011 to force the president and Congress to reach agreement on the budget over the next 10 years

  • Date coincides with expiry of Bush-era tax cuts

  • There are fear that raising taxes while massively cutting spending will have a huge impact on households and businesses

  • The fiscal squeeze could also push the US into recession, and have a global impact


• Rises in inheritance taxes from 35% to 40% after the first $ 5m for an individual and $ 10m for a couple


• Rises in capital taxes – affecting some investment income – of up to 20%, but less than the 39.6% that would prevail without a deal


• One-year extension for unemployment benefits, affecting two million people


• Five-year extension for tax credits that help poorer and middle-class families


Imperfect solution


President Barack Obama welcomed the Senate vote.


“Leaders from both parties in the Senate came together to reach an agreement that passed with overwhelming bipartisan support today that protects 98% of Americans and 97% of small business owners from a middle class tax hike,” he said in a statement.


Continue reading the main story

Press reaction


Jennifer Steinhauer in The New York Times writes: “The confusing struggle to head off a national fiscal crisis has made one thing crystal clear: The era of the Big Deal is over.”


In The Washington Post, David A Fahrenthold says:”The New Year’s Eve agreement between [Vice-President Joe] Biden and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell provided a glimpse at the ways that personality quirks and one-to-one relationships can still change the course of Washington politics.”


The Wall Street Journal says: “The wider deal doesn’t do much to control the US’s long-term budget woes, which are driven largely by entitlement spending, especially on health care, left untouched in this agreement.”



“While neither Democrats nor Republicans got everything they wanted, this agreement is the right thing to do for our country and the House should pass it without delay.”


Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, said: “It took an imperfect solution to prevent our constituents from a very real financial pain, but in my view, it was worth the effort.”


The BBC’s Mark Mardell in Washington says many of the Republicans who dominate the House dislike the deal and may stand on their principle.


Speaker John Boehner said the House would consider the deal but left open the possibility of amending the Senate bill – which would spark another round of legislation.


“Decisions about whether the House will seek to accept or promptly amend the measure will not be made until House members… have been able to review the legislation,” Mr Boehner and other House Republican leaders said in a statement.


The current House can legislate until Wednesday, when it is replaced by a new chamber chosen during last November’s election.


BBC News – Business





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US ‘fiscal cliff’ talks go to wire







US Congressional leaders have one more day to stop steep tax rises and spending cuts, known as the “fiscal cliff”, after talks ended with no deal.






Senators will continue to seek a compromise deal on Monday to send to the House of Representatives.


Failure to reach agreement by 1 January could push the US back into recession.


President Barack Obama has blamed Republicans for the deadlock. He said their “overriding theme” was protecting tax breaks for the rich.


Fallback plan


Continue reading the main story

At the scene




Few in the US capital could talk of anything but who would win Sunday’s must-win showdown. For most, that meant an NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys; on Capitol Hill the stakes were somewhat higher.


Cliches and aphorisms abounded in the Senate corridors as reports spread of a breakdown in deal-making. “The fat lady hasn’t sung yet,” one Republican declared, obscured by the pack of reporters following him down the hallway. “These things always happen at the end,” said Chuck Schumer, a senior Democrat.


But it was the retiring senators, three days away from their final goodbyes, who spoke the most openly. Failure would “send a message worldwide that we don’t have the capacity to work across political aisles on critical issues”, said Olympia Snowe, Maine’s outgoing Republican.


“The world has gotten used to this so they are no longer shocked,” Ben Nelson, a retiring Nebraska Democrat said. “They see this as just more of the same and hope that one of these days maybe Congress will get its act together.”



Republicans and Democrats have been fighting for months over how to deal with the combination of automatic spending cuts and the expiration of Bush-era tax reductions at the new year.


Without an agreement, higher taxes will rise for virtually every working American and across-the-board cuts in government spending will kick in from Tuesday.


Analysts say this could significantly reduce consumer spending, leading the US economy to fall off the “fiscal cliff”.


After the latest round of intense negotiations in the Senate on Sunday the main sticking points reportedly include such key issues as the income threshold for higher tax rates and inheritance taxes.


If no agreement is reached on Monday, senators are expected to be given the chance to vote on a fallback plan proposed by President Obama.


That would renew tax cuts on earnings under $ 250,000 (£154,000) and extend unemployment benefits, but does not address the spending cuts.


Both the House and Senate are due to convene on Monday in a last-minute attempt to bridge the gap between the two sides. The Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner, has insisted that the Senate act first.


The current stand-off has its roots in a failed 2011 attempt to tackle the government debt limit and budget deficit.


Republicans and Democrats agreed then to postpone difficult decisions on spending until the end of 2012.


Commentators say that even if a deal is reached, it will do little to reduce the original problem of the deficit and the government debt limit, raising the prospect of further political infighting early in the new year.


Parties divided


Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid and his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell were locked in negotiations over the weekend.


Continue reading the main story

What is the fiscal cliff?


  • On 1 January 2013, tax increases and huge spending cuts are due to come into force – the so-called fiscal cliff

  • Deadline was put in place in 2011 to force president and Congress to agree ways to save money over the next 10 years

  • Date coincides with expiry of Bush-era tax cuts, which would affect all income groups and many businesses

  • Fear is that raising taxes while massively cutting spending will have a huge impact on households and businesses

  • Experts believe it could push the US into recession, and have a global impact on growth


The two senators appeared to admit before the 15:00 deadline (20:00 GMT) that negotiations were at a standstill, with their two parties still divided over core issues.


However late on Sunday, Senate Republicans said they were dropping their proposal to slow the growth of Social Security payments. The plan – which would have led to lower benefits to pensioners and the disabled – had been fiercely resisted by Democrats.


Meanwhile Senator McConnell said he had asked Vice-President Joe Biden for help in breaking the deadlock late on Sunday.


“I’m concerned with the lack of urgency here. There’s far too much at stake,” he said. “There is no single issue that remains an impossible sticking point – the sticking point appears to be a willingness, an interest or courage to close the deal.”


In his interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, broadcast on Sunday, Mr Obama said the priority was to ensure taxes do not rise for middle-class families, saying that would “hurt our economy badly”.


“That’s something we all agree on. If we can get that done, that takes a big bite out of the ‘fiscal cliff’,” he said.


There is also debate over where to set the threshold for tax rises. Democrats say the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended for all Americans except the richest – those with annual earnings of more than $ 250,000 (£155,000).


Republicans – some of whom have pledged never to vote for increased taxes – say the deficit is a consequence of excessive government spending.


They want the tax threshold set higher, at around $ 400,000, and for revenue to be raised by economic growth and cuts in social security and other services states are legally bound to provide.


BBC News – Business





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Most ‘spent less on Christmas’







A majority of consumers spent less on their Christmas shopping this year than they did in 2011, according to a survey by the consumers’ association Which?






Nearly half used credit cards, overdrafts and other borrowing to help fund their purchases, the survey of 2,100 people across the UK suggests.


Nine out of 10 agreed that they felt under pressure to spend too much during the festive season.


Just under half – 46% – used some form of debt to help them meet their bills.


Nearly a quarter claimed they would not otherwise have been able to afford their Christmas shopping.


Credit cards were the most popular form of borrowing, although a substantial proportion also relied on authorised overdrafts from their banks.


A majority reported they had found the Christmas period financially tougher than last year, and more than half of those questioned also said that they had cut back on their seasonal spending.


Continue reading the main story

Most of us like to splash out on family and friends at this time of year, so the news that millions of people have drastically cut back on Christmas spending or taken out loans to cover Christmas costs shows just how squeezed household budgets are right now”



End Quote Richard Lloyd Which?


However, the message from the retail industry so far is that Christmas sales were acceptable, and may have been a little higher than last year.


The survey suggested 54% of consumers expected their Christmas budgets to be even tighter next year.


The average amount put on credit was £301, while for those who went into their savings, the average was £380.


Around 12% of consumers used authorised overdrafts, 8% spent on store cards and 5% simply borrowed money from friends or family.


Nearly half (48%) of those asked said they did not buy as much food and 45% bought less high quality food than last year because of increasing food prices.


Which? executive director Richard Lloyd said: “Most of us like to splash out on family and friends at this time of year, so the news that millions of people have drastically cut back on Christmas spending or taken out loans to cover Christmas costs shows just how squeezed household budgets are right now.


“It also shows how far we are from a consumer spending-led economic recovery.”


BBC News – Business





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Obama ‘optimistic’ on cliff deal









US President Barack Obama: “An agreement is being discussed as we speak”



US President Barack Obama says he is “modestly optimistic” that a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” is possible, after a last-ditch White House meeting.


Mr Obama said Senate leaders were working to craft a bill that could win approval in both chambers of Congress.


But if a compromise was not reached, the president said he would ask for a quick vote on preventing tax rises.


Congress has only four days to reach an agreement before across-the-board tax rises and spending cuts take effect.


Analysts say sliding over the so-called “cliff” could tip the US into recession and set back the global economic recovery.


If Senate majority leader Harry Reid and minority leader Mitch McConnell do not work out a deal, Mr Obama is seeking a vote to prevent tax rises on incomes up to $ 250,000 (£150,000) and ensure unemployment insurance is continued.


He described that as the “bare minimum” Congress should get done before 1 January.


“The hour for immediate action is here, it is now,” Mr Obama said.


‘Imperfect’ deal


Earlier on Friday, Mr Obama met Mr Reid, Mr McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi at the White House for just over an hour.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



“The American people are watching what we do here – obviously their patience is already thin”



End Quote Barack Obama


Mr McConnell and Mr Reid said they were entering talks shortly after the meeting, and gave relatively upbeat assessments on their task.


Mr McConnell said he was “hopeful and optimistic” that he could present a comprise to his caucus by Sunday, just over 24 hours before the deadline.


His Democratic counterpart said he would “do everything I can” to make the deal happened.


But Mr Reid cautioned that “whatever we come up with is going to be imperfect”.


The renewed effort towards a Senate deal that could pass both chambers comes after much of the focus in negotiations rested on House Speaker John Boehner.


An alternative plan proposed by Mr Boehner – which would have seen taxes rise only on those earning over $ 1m – failed in the House of Representatives late last week.


Continue reading the main story

What is the fiscal cliff?


  • On 1 January 2013, tax increases and huge spending cuts are due to come into force – the so-called fiscal cliff

  • Deadline was put in place in 2011 to force president and Congress to agree ways to save money over the next 10 years

  • Fear is that raising taxes while massively cutting spending will have huge impact on households and businesses

  • Experts believe it could push the US into recession, and have a global impact on growth


Mr Boehner has called the lower chamber into session on Sunday. A staff member in the house speaker’s office told Reuters that the House would consider Senate legislation.


“The Speaker told the president that if the Senate amends the House-passed legislation and sends back a plan, the House will consider it – either by accepting or amending,” the unnamed aide said.


Mr Obama’s plans to increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans have remained a point of division between the two parties since he won re-election in November.


Many Republicans oppose new taxes as a matter of principle, and are demanding cuts to what they see as deficit-inflating public spending, putting at risk healthcare and welfare benefit schemes popular with Democrats.


During the news conference on Friday, Mr Obama said any last minute action on tax rises would form the groundwork for further negotiations in the new year.


“The American people are watching what we do here,” he said. “Obviously their patience is already thin.”


Cuts and benefits


The term fiscal cliff refers to the combination of almost $ 600bn (£370bn) of tax rises and spending cuts due to come into force on 1 January if Congress does not pass new legislation.


Sweeping tax cuts passed during the presidency of George W Bush will expire, eventually affecting people of all income levels, and many businesses.


Other tax cuts and benefits set to expire include:


• A 2010 payroll tax cut, the expiration of which would prompt immediate wage-packet cuts


• Benefits for the long-term unemployed


• Compensation for doctors treating patients on federal healthcare programmes


• Inheritance taxes are also likely to be affected if no deal is reached.


In addition, spending cuts mandated by a law passed to break a previous fiscal impasse in Congress will come into force, affecting both military and domestic budgets.


The cuts are expected to affect federal government departments and the defence sector, as well as hitting unemployment insurance and veterans’ support.


BBC News – Business





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How Often Do We Use Guns in Self-Defense?






“The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.”


If you had to sum up the National Rifle Association’s response to the Newtown (Conn.) school massacre, and to any proposal for tougher gun-control laws, that one sentence from the NRA’s Dec. 21 press conference pretty much does the trick.






The gun owners’ lobby opposes restrictions on civilian acquisition and possession of firearms because, it contends, law-abiding people need guns to defend themselves. Millions of people also use guns for hunting and target-shooting. But at the core of the NRA’s argument is self-defense: the ultimate right to protect one’s ability to remain upright and breathing.


So how often do Americans use guns to defend themselves? If it almost never happens, then the NRA argument is based on a fallacy and deserves little respect in the fashioning of public policy. If, on the other hand, defensive gun use (DGU) is relatively common, then even a diehard gun-control advocate with any principles and common sense would admit that this fact must be given some weight.


Criminologists concur that the unusual prevalence of guns in America—some 300 million in private hands—makes our violent crime more lethal than that of other countries. (See, for example, the excellent When Brute Force Fails, by UCLA’s Mark Kleiman.) That’s the cost of allowing widespread civilian gun ownership: In this country, when someone is inclined to commit a mugging, shoot up a movie theater, or kill their spouse (or themselves), firearms are readily available.


One reason the gun debate seems so radioactive is that gun-control proponents refer almost exclusively to the cost of widespread gun ownership, while the NRA and its allies focus on guns as instruments and symbols of self-reliance. Very few, if any, participants in the conflict acknowledge that guns are both bad and good, depending on how they’re used. Robbers use them to stick up convenience stores, and convenience store owners use them to stop armed robbers.


If guns have a countervailing benefit—that lawful firearm owners frequently or even occasionally use guns to defend themselves and their loved ones—then determining how aggressively to curb private possession becomes a more complicated proposition.


As with everything else concerning guns in this country, the DGU question prompts divergent answers. At one end of the spectrum, the NRA cites research by Gary Kleck, an accomplished criminologist at Florida State University. Based on self-reporting by survey respondents, Kleck has extrapolated that DGU occurs more than 2 million times a year. Kleck doesn’t suggest that gun owners shoot potential antagonists that often. DGU covers various scenarios, including merely brandishing a weapon and scaring off an aggressor.


At the other end of the spectrum, gun skeptics prefer to cite the work of David Hemenway, an eminent public-health scholar at Harvard University. Hemenway, who analogizes gun violence to an epidemic and guns to the contagion, argues that Kleck’s research significantly overestimates the frequency of DGU.


The carping back and forth gets pretty technical, but the brief version is that Hemenway believes Kleck includes too many “false positives”: respondents who claim they’ve chased off burglars or rapists with guns but probably are boasting or, worse, categorizing unlawful aggressive conduct as legitimate DGU. Hemenway finds more reliable an annual federal government research project, called the National Crime Victimization Survey, which yields estimates in the neighborhood of 100,000 defensive gun uses per year. Making various reasonable-sounding adjustments, other social scientists have suggested that perhaps a figure somewhere between 250,000 and 370,000 might be more accurate.


What’s the upshot?


1. We don’t know exactly how frequently defensive gun use occurs.


2. A conservative estimate of the order of magnitude is tens of thousands of times a year; 100,000 is not a wild gun-nut fantasy.


3. Many gun owners (I am not one, but I know plenty) focus not on statistical probabilities, but on a worst-case scenario: They’re in trouble, and they want a fighting chance.


4. DGU does not answer any questions in this debate, but it’s a factor that deserves attention.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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America, Please End the Small-Minded Policy Blather






The United States is a country that likes to be taken seriously. It’s also a country that just spent upwards of an entire year and $ 5 billion on elections that achieved approximately nothing. While the politics industry was consumed by urgent, domestic concerns—can you believe that Mitt Romney wants an elevator for his cars?—one or two things were happening overseas. You know, meltdown in Europe. Political collapse in Japan. Civil war in Syria. Scandals, slowdown, and a leadership transition in China.


Sometimes it was difficult to retain focus on Clint Eastwood’s empty chair, Ann Romney’s horse, and Elizabeth Warren’s Cherokee lineage. Somehow the country rose to the challenge, taking time to weigh which was more troubling, Romney’s method of dog transport or Barack Obama’s memory of dog meat being tough when he tasted it as a boy in Indonesia.






The British say Americans lack a sense of the absurd. Not so. Consider the Oct. 22 presidential debate on foreign policy. Mostly it was about domestic policy, though the candidates did note that China, Iran, and several other foreign nations exist. Events in Europe weren’t worth mentioning, but Israel was a friend, they agreed. Discussing geostrategy, Obama explained to Romney: “We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have these ships that go under water, nuclear submarines.” Romney was unfazed. “We will stand with Israel,” he affirmed.


The same absurdist tradition extends to fiscal policy. The country’s political class maintains it’s been grappling with fundamental questions about the limits of markets and the role of government, when it’s mostly been arguing about the top rate of income tax, a topic so narrow it’s almost beside the point. In the negotiations over the so-called fiscal cliff, real choices about fiscal ends and means have been excluded by tacit agreement, just as they were during the campaigns.


The White House talks as though adequate public provision, including an enlarged commitment to publicly supported health insurance, can be financed by a sliver of taxpayers at the top; everybody else gets something for nothing. Republicans offer a similar deal. Taxes can be driven lower by deep spending cuts (details to come) which the country would hardly notice. That’s the great debate about the country’s direction?


A more attentive political class would have noticed, first, that fiscal policy is not merely a domestic issue, and the global economy is still a dangerous place. Five years after the onset of the Great Recession, the biggest and most populous economies are stressed and many governments are flailing. As an exporter, outward investor, and record-breaking debtor, the U.S. is bound up with all of them. A worst-case scenario in Europe could send the U.S. back into recession. The same Europe mentioned only in passing in that Oct. 22 presidential debate.


The world economy is growing at between 3 percent and 4 percent—a crawl by ordinary standards. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the advanced economies will grow next year by just 1.5 percent. The euro area is back in recession, and Japan could be headed that way. The volume of world trade grew by just 3.2 percent in 2012, and the IMF expects growth of less than 5 percent next year. Compare that with the four years leading up to the crisis: Trade volumes grew by an average of nearly 9 percent annually. The Great Recession isn’t over.


Emerging and developing economies were a source of strength when the downturn began, but that phase has ended. China’s growth slowed this year with the shrinking of its export markets and after the government tightened access to credit, fearing a real estate bubble. There are hopes that Xi Jinping, freshly installed as head of the Communist Party’s fifth-generation leadership, will have a bigger appetite for economic reform than his predecessor. Still, expect setbacks. The expansion has been powered by investment in infrastructure of dubious viability, financed with short-term bank loans rather than bonds—a formula for financial frailty.


In 2012 many investors decided India’s economic reforms had stalled. Too little infrastructure remains India’s problem, as the biggest power outages in a decade illustrated. Business confidence sagged, and output slowed. In recent weeks, Manmohan Singh’s government has renewed its commitment to liberalization. We’ll see.


Brazil’s government thought it was pioneering a new model combining social inclusion and rapid growth, but the global slowdown and its own efforts to stem inflation cut growth to just 1.5 percent in 2012. Its leaders said the U.S. had started a “currency war” and was resorting to “monetary protectionism.” (It’s called quantitative easing in the north.) Growth slowed in Russia and South Africa as well. Blame weak governments and strong economic ties to Europe.


In all, the BRICs aren’t what they used to be. The developing countries in the aggregate grew by only a little more than 5 percent this year, down from over 7 percent in 2010. IMF forecasters expect little improvement in 2013.


Political paralysis plagued Japan all year. The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide election victory this month and Shinzo Abe’s return as prime minister could make a difference. Abe has promised a dose of economic radicalism—starting with stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus. But Japan’s debt is already so vast that his budget options are few. Heavy spending on reconstruction after the earthquake buoyed growth this year. Forecasters expect it to subside again.


Britain’s experiment with “expansionary austerity” failed. Its overdeveloped financial sector, overextended mortgage borrowers, and exports to the euro area all continue to weigh on demand. With a currency of its own, the Bank of England resorted to quantitative easing and tolerated persistent overshoots of its inflation target. That helped, but growth stayed slow and the economy contracted again.


Which brings us to the central figure in our great global drama. Despite the recent lull in financial markets, the euro area still tops the list of dangers. Massive unemployment in the currency zone’s periphery and, as yet, no real prospect of recovery make political upheaval and a new round of financial alarm all too probable. Europe’s banking system is far from safe. The recent agreement to create a single bank supervisor for the euro countries is welcome but stops well short of a credible plan to deal with the main problem—which is to recapitalize distressed banks without driving peripheral-country governments to insolvency.


A big new setback in Europe is all too possible. It would shrink American export markets further and could trigger a new round of panic in financial markets. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has tried to influence developments in Europe, Japan, and the big emerging economies, but these efforts to persuade haven’t worked. What the U.S. should do instead is use its own financial resilience as a beacon of reassurance to financial markets.


In practical terms, what does that require? Like it or not, fiscal policy is crucial. On current policies, America’s net federal debt would rise from roughly 70 percent in 2012 to more than 90 percent after 10 years and roughly 200 percent by 2040. Thereafter it rises literally off the charts. The bargaining position that the White House brought to the fiscal-cliff talks is essentially its budget from last spring, which proposes to stabilize the debt ratio at a level a little higher than now: between 75 percent and 80 percent.


The experience of other countries suggests that stabilizing the debt at such a high level isn’t enough. Japan has shown it’s possible to run net debt as high as 135 percent of gross domestic product—the ratio estimated for 2012—without provoking a bond-market backlash. For that, though, thank the country’s captive savers, a cultural legacy the U.S. can’t count on. And whatever Abe, the incoming prime minister, may say, Japan’s space for further fiscal stimulus is close to zero. The lesson is that chronic inattention to fiscal control eventually kills fiscal flexibility. In the next crisis, you’ll need it and it won’t be there.


In Europe, put Greece aside as an outlier; Italy, one of the region’s biggest and richest economies, is more to the point. Its ability to borrow has been called into question at a debt ratio not much higher (and with a flatter trajectory) than America’s. The debt ratio of Spain, another distressed euro-area borrower, has been lower than America’s throughout. Neither Italy nor Spain is able to print currency to service its debts.


Just where the debt limit is for an economy attached to a mint, such as the U.S., is impossible to say—until the economy encounters it, a discovery best avoided. The real lesson from the rest of the world is not about exact debt-ratio thresholds, but that fiscal space eventually runs out, and when it does you’re in trouble.


Look at it this way: The fiscal response to the Great Recession increased the U.S. debt ratio by some 35 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2012. Let’s suppose, like the White House, that the fiscal stimulus was money well spent. The next economic calamity would presumably call for another robust intervention. Can the country plausibly hope to increase its debt by another 20 percentage points of GDP, let alone another 35 percentage points, starting at a ratio of 80 percent?


America’s goal should be to bring the debt ratio back down to the point at which it can safely contemplate another big fiscal intervention if it needs to make one. That sounds hard. It will demand a different kind of discussion than the one Washington is presently having.


Yet it’s feasible. Policymakers even have a blueprint: the plan designed by the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission, a panel the president summoned—and then ignored. It proposed a fiscal adjustment roughly twice as powerful as the one being framed in the fiscal-cliff talks. This would stabilize the debt ratio by the middle of this decade, then reduce it to 60 percent of GDP by 2024 and 40 percent by 2037. The commission showed that if the government looks for savings in every category of spending, the cuts aren’t fierce. Broadening the country’s depleted tax base by closing loopholes and exemptions (including preferences for investment income) could raise ample revenue without higher marginal rates.


Naturally, there’s more to economic policy than the budget. A demanding global policy agenda also needs American attention and leadership. After the crash, there was genuine international cooperation. The resurgence of protectionism many predicted as the global contraction got worse never happened. Central banks coordinated their responses effectively.


On the other hand, governments pursued financial reform mostly at the national level. Defects in the multinational Basel process for regulating bank capital helped cause the crisis in the first place, and there’s no substitute for effective coordination in this area. America must take the lead. Trade protection didn’t explode after 2008, but the Doha Round of new liberalization is defunct. The U.S. should look to revive it. Worldwide, efforts to insure against the dangers of climate change are flagging. Here too, American leadership, disgracefully overdue, is needed.


At home, suppressing the instinct to obsess over points of disagreement, Washington could make common cause over education and skills. A little less navel-gazing might scare the town straight. For decades after 1945, the U.S. increased the proportion of its workforce with a college education faster than anywhere else, and the economy reaped the benefits. That advantage is at an end. By the early 2000s a little over 40 percent of Americans aged 25-34 had post-secondary education, about the same proportion as those aged 55-64. In other advanced economies, the younger generation is typically much better educated than people approaching retirement—and in a dozen or so countries, rates of higher education for 25- to 34-year-olds have surpassed America’s.


The U.S. still has priceless assets in the vibrancy of its private sector and its culture of innovation and risk-taking, but its skills and education deficits are a big and worsening concern—holding back growth, contributing to income inequality, and adding to poverty that’s already high by advanced-economy standards. Immigration reform offers a partial short-term remedy. Longer term, education policy requires an overhaul.


Policies like these needn’t divide the country. They aren’t a matter of Left or Right. Members of both parties backed Simpson-Bowles and support liberal trade and pro-skills immigration reform. Prominent Democrats and Republicans advocate far-reaching education reform. Scaling these ideas up to national policy, though, requires a broader consensus and the willingness to concentrate on practical points of agreement, rather than totems of doctrinal correctness.


Washington can do better than that. Consensus is a lost art that many voters hoped President Obama would rediscover. He achieved a lot in his first term—the health-care reform he’d promised in the 2008 campaign and a fiscal stimulus that likely avoided an economic catastrophe—but he didn’t mend America’s broken, inward-looking, small-minded politics. Starting now, he gets another chance.


Businessweek.com — Top News





Title Post: America, Please End the Small-Minded Policy Blather
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